bayesRatings

Rays at Phillies

MLB · Sunday, Sep 27 · 1:30 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final TB 3 – PHI 7
← MLB / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000010200380
PHI130030007120
Team box
TB·PHI
8
hits
12
2
home runs
2
0
walks
4
8
strikeouts
5
134
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jonny DeLucaTB2-4222
Edmundo SosaPHI2-4211
Kyle SchwarberPHI2-4102
Bryson StottPHI3-3101
Bryce HarperPHI1-5111
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (L)TB2.27411
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI6.05105

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
TB +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 6 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 50%, PHI 50% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.2 – 4.1 PHI
Expected total
8.3
RaysThe matchupPhillies
−100Our fair odds+100
4.2Expected runs4.1
+0.20Power rating+0.13
4.6Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game4.3
8.7Hits / game8.0
1.04Home runs / game1.12
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
98−63Season record87−74
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · PHI chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays−10050%+16637.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10050%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 16%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%
← TB wins byPHI wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more36%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 13 Kstarted
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·PHI
Sep 26 at PHI
last game
Sep 26 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
TB·PHI
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.6
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
98−63
season record
87−74
55−26
home record
42−38
43−37
away record
45−36
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
8.0
1.04
home runs / game
1.12
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.57
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

TB · PHI · 183 days
Tampa Bay RaysPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 8−2
Sep 26at PHITB 12 − 1
Sep 25at PHITB 2 − 0
May 8, 2025at TBPHI 7 − 6
May 7, 2025at TBPHI 7 − 0
May 6, 2025at TBPHI 8 − 4
Sep 11, 2024at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2024at PHIPHI 9 − 4
Sep 9, 2024at PHIPHI 2 − 1
Jul 6, 2023at TBPHI 3 − 1
Jul 5, 2023at TBPHI 8 − 4

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 26at PHI12 − 1W
Sep 25at PHI2 − 0W
Sep 24at NYY4 − 6L
Sep 23at NYY2 − 9L
Sep 22at NYY6 − 1W
Sep 22at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 20vs BOS5 − 1W
Sep 19vs BOS2 − 1W
Sep 18vs BOS2 − 4L
Sep 17vs ATH10 − 1W

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Sep 26vs TB1 − 12L
Sep 25vs TB0 − 2L
Sep 24vs MIL1 − 5L
Sep 23vs MIL1 − 4L
Sep 22vs MIL6 − 4W
Sep 20at NYM7 − 2W
Sep 19at NYM3 − 10L
Sep 18at NYM3 − 6L
Sep 17at NYM3 − 0W
Sep 16at WSH3 − 0W