bayesRatings

Rays at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TB 6 – NYY 1
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB0010003026110
NYY000000100130
Team box
TB·NYY
11
hits
3
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
6
strikeouts
13
144
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB2-5004
Taylor WallsTB3-4301
George Lombard Jr.NYY1-4001
Heliot RamosNYY1-4100
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY1-3000
Cedric MullinsTB1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB6.211311
Max Fried (L)NYY6.26424

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +5
TB +5
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 46%, NYY 54% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.8 TB
Expected total
8.2
RaysThe matchupYankees
+116Our fair odds−116
3.8Expected runs4.3
+0.19Power rating+0.25
4.6Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.7Hits / game7.8
1.06Home runs / game1.39
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
95−60Season record89−66
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYY chance
Our model fair46.3%53.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11646%————
NYYNew York Yankees−11654%————
SpreadNYY by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYY
Sep 22 at NYY
last game
Sep 22 vs TB
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
TB·NYY
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.6
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
95−60
season record
89−66
55−26
home record
42−32
40−34
away record
47−34
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
7.8
1.06
home runs / game
1.39
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.57
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TB · NYY · 178 days
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Jul 9at TBNYY 12 − 4
Jul 8at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 7at TBTB 6 − 4
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0
May 22at NYYTB 4 − 2
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 20vs BOS5 − 1W
Sep 19vs BOS2 − 1W
Sep 18vs BOS2 − 4L
Sep 17vs ATH10 − 1W
Sep 16vs ATH4 − 3W
Sep 15vs ATH2 − 1W
Sep 13vs HOU14 − 4W
Sep 12vs HOU3 − 2W
Sep 11vs HOU3 − 1W
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W
Sep 12vs NYM2 − 12L
Sep 11vs NYM6 − 4W
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W