bayesRatings

Yankees at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final NYY 8 – MIN 1
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY2010040018140
MIN010000000171
Team box
NYY·MIN
14
hits
7
2
home runs
0
4
walks
0
6
strikeouts
6
117
pitches thrown
179
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cody BellingerNYY3-4112
Spencer JonesNYY1-5113
Luke KeaschallMIN3-4000
Emmanuel RodriguezMIN2-3001
Heliot RamosNYY2-4201
George Lombard Jr.NYY2-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Fried (W)NYY7.06106
Bailey Ober (L)MIN5.19323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
NYY +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · NYY 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 58%, MIN 42% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
NYY by 1.2
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
9.3
YankeesThe matchupTwins
−138Our fair odds+138
5.2Expected runs4.1
+0.26Power rating−0.15
4.6Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game8.2
1.38Home runs / game1.17
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
87−63Season record70−80
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · MIN chance
Our model fair58.0%42.0%
Kalshi63.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−13858%−17563.6%———
MINMinnesota Twins+13842%+14640.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.2
NYYNew York Yankees−1.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.2 expected
New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byMIN wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more36%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·MIN
Sep 14 at MIN
last game
Sep 14 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
NYY·MIN
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.6
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
87−63
season record
70−80
42−32
home record
39−37
45−31
away record
31−43
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.2
1.38
home runs / game
1.17
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.59
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

NYY · MIN · 171 days
New York YankeesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Sep 14at MINNYY 8 − 3
Jul 5at NYYMIN 6 − 1
Jul 4at NYYMIN 11 − 4
Jul 3at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 9
Sep 15, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at NYYMIN 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W
Sep 12vs NYM2 − 12L
Sep 11vs NYM6 − 4W
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W
Sep 9vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 8vs COL5 − 3W
Sep 6at SD3 − 4L
Sep 5at SD5 − 1W
Sep 4at SD2 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L
Sep 9at DET2 − 7L
Sep 8at DET3 − 2W
Sep 7at DET4 − 5L
Sep 6at CHW1 − 10L
Sep 5at CHW6 − 4W
Sep 4at CHW1 − 4L