bayesRatings

Yankees at Twins

MLB · Monday, Sep 14 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final NYY 8 – MIN 3
← MLB / Sep 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY001000061883
MIN000002010361
Team box
NYY·MIN
8
hits
6
3
home runs
1
1
walks
4
9
strikeouts
7
148
pitches thrown
161
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Aaron JudgeNYY1-4113
Jose CaballeroNYY2-4212
Josh BellMIN2-4211
Ben RiceNYY2-3102
Austin WellsNYY1-4111
Emmanuel RodriguezMIN1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will WarrenNYY5.25026
Tim Hill (W)NYY1.01100
John Schreiber (S)NYY1.10010
Dean KremerMIN5.22115
Andrew Morris (L)MIN0.13301

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +5
NYY +5
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · NYY 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 57%, MIN 43% · Updated Sep 14

Expected margin
NYY by 1.2
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
9.2
YankeesThe matchupTwins
−135Our fair odds+135
5.2Expected runs4.0
+0.24Power rating−0.14
4.5Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game5.0
7.7Hits / game8.2
1.37Home runs / game1.17
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
86−63Season record70−79
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · MIN chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−13557%−12655.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+13543%+10548.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.2
NYYNew York Yankees−1.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.2 expected
New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byMIN wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more47%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more36%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.00 ERA, 19 Kstarted
MINDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 7.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·MIN
Sep 13 vs NYM
last game
Sep 13 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 149+ games
NYY·MIN
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.5
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
86−63
season record
70−79
42−32
home record
39−36
44−31
away record
31−43
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.2
1.37
home runs / game
1.17
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.58
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

NYY · MIN · 170 days
New York YankeesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jul 5at NYYMIN 6 − 1
Jul 4at NYYMIN 11 − 4
Jul 3at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 9
Sep 15, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at NYYMIN 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jun 6, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 5

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W
Sep 12vs NYM2 − 12L
Sep 11vs NYM6 − 4W
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W
Sep 9vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 8vs COL5 − 3W
Sep 6at SD3 − 4L
Sep 5at SD5 − 1W
Sep 4at SD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAA6 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L
Sep 9at DET2 − 7L
Sep 8at DET3 − 2W
Sep 7at DET4 − 5L
Sep 6at CHW1 − 10L
Sep 5at CHW6 − 4W
Sep 4at CHW1 − 4L
Sep 2vs DET6 − 11L