bayesRatings

Mets at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final NYM 4 – NYY 6
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM010000111470
NYY130010016131
Team box
NYM·NYY
7
hits
13
1
home runs
2
5
walks
1
9
strikeouts
7
142
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cody BellingerNYY2-4113
A.J. EwingNYM2-4112
Ben RiceNYY3-4311
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY3-4000
Spencer JonesNYY2-4001
Marcus SemienNYM1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (L)NYM5.010515
Carlos Rodon (W)NYY6.13118
David Bednar (S)NYY1.22101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: NYY 4 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 41%, NYY 59% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
8.5
MetsThe matchupYankees
+141Our fair odds−141
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.01Power rating+0.25
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game3.7
8.0Hits / game7.7
1.24Home runs / game1.36
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
68−78Season record84−62
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · NYY chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+14141%+10947.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14159%−13156.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYMNew York Mets+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more44%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 2.63 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·NYY
Sep 9 at MIA
last game
Sep 10 vs COL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 146+ games
NYM·NYY
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
68−78
season record
84−62
34−40
home record
40−31
34−38
away record
44−31
W4
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.0
hits / game
7.7
1.24
home runs / game
1.36
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.61
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

NYM · NYY · 167 days
New York MetsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
May 17at NYMNYM 7 − 6
May 16at NYMNYM 6 − 3
May 15at NYMNYY 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at NYMNYY 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
May 18, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 2
May 17, 2025at NYYNYM 3 − 2
May 16, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2024at NYYNYM 12 − 3

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Sep 9at MIA15 − 14W
Sep 8at MIA7 − 5W
Sep 7at MIA9 − 4W
Sep 6vs SF4 − 2W
Sep 5vs SF5 − 9L
Sep 4vs SF10 − 6W
Sep 2at TB10 − 4W
Sep 1at TB2 − 6L
Aug 31at TB3 − 2W
Aug 30vs HOU3 − 6L

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W
Sep 9vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 8vs COL5 − 3W
Sep 6at SD3 − 4L
Sep 5at SD5 − 1W
Sep 4at SD2 − 3L
Sep 2at LAA6 − 3W
Sep 1at LAA7 − 3W
Aug 31at LAA1 − 10L
Aug 30vs BOS16 − 1W