bayesRatings

Yankees at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final NYY 4 – MIN 5
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910111213THE
NYY0000000021100491
MIN10001000011015100
Team box
NYY·MIN
9
hits
10
0
home runs
1
5
walks
5
17
strikeouts
11
188
pitches thrown
210
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke KeaschallMIN3-5201
Anthony VolpeNYY2-5002
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-4111
Cody BellingerNYY3-5100
Josh BellMIN1-5001
Victor CaratiniMIN1-1001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos RodonNYY6.04235
John Schreiber (L)NYY1.01010
Zebby MatthewsMIN6.02028
Tommy Nance (W)MIN1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
NYY +3
12345678910111213
largest lead: MIN 2 · NYY 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 58%, MIN 42% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
NYY by 1.3
Expected score
NYY 5.3 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
9.3
YankeesThe matchupTwins
−141Our fair odds+141
5.3Expected runs4.0
+0.27Power rating−0.16
4.6Runs / game4.5
3.7Allowed / game5.0
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.38Home runs / game1.16
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
88−63Season record70−81
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · MIN chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−14158%−18364.6%———
MINMinnesota Twins+14142%+15239.6%———
SpreadNYY by 1.3
NYYNew York Yankees−1.3our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.3 expected
New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byMIN wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more48%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more37%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·MIN
Sep 15 at MIN
last game
Sep 15 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
NYY·MIN
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
4.6
runs / game
4.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.0
88−63
season record
70−81
42−32
home record
39−38
46−31
away record
31−43
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.38
home runs / game
1.16
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.59
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

NYY · MIN · 172 days
New York YankeesMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Sep 15at MINNYY 8 − 1
Sep 14at MINNYY 8 − 3
Jul 5at NYYMIN 6 − 1
Jul 4at NYYMIN 11 − 4
Jul 3at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 9
Sep 15, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at NYYMIN 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 1

NYY · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W
Sep 12vs NYM2 − 12L
Sep 11vs NYM6 − 4W
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W
Sep 9vs COL6 − 1W
Sep 8vs COL5 − 3W
Sep 6at SD3 − 4L
Sep 5at SD5 − 1W

MIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L
Sep 9at DET2 − 7L
Sep 8at DET3 − 2W
Sep 7at DET4 − 5L
Sep 6at CHW1 − 10L
Sep 5at CHW6 − 4W