bayesRatings

Yankees at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Sep 20 · 3:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final NYY 4 – ARI 8
← MLB / Sep 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY004000000481
ARI100050208110
Team box
NYY·ARI
8
hits
11
3
home runs
1
2
walks
4
8
strikeouts
6
139
pitches thrown
151
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4114
George Lombard Jr.NYY2-4112
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4102
Heliot RamosNYY1-4111
Spencer JonesNYY1-4111
Corbin CarrollARI1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will WarrenNYY4.16434
Brent Headrick (L)NYY0.21211
Corbin BurnesARI2.25422
Justin Martinez (W)ARI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · NYY 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 54%, ARI 46% · Updated Sep 20

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.0 ARI
Expected total
8.7
YankeesThe matchupDiamondbacks
−116Our fair odds+116
4.7Expected runs4.0
+0.26Power rating+0.03
4.6Runs / game4.4
3.7Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.2
1.38Home runs / game1.01
3.6Walks drawn / game3.3
89−65Season record81−74
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · ARI chance
Our model fair53.6%46.4%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−11654%+10149.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11646%−12655.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 17%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byARI wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 0.96 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ARICorbin Burnes SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 4.38 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·ARI
Sep 19 at ARI
last game
Sep 19 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
NYY·ARI
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.6
runs / game
4.4
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
89−65
season record
81−74
42−32
home record
44−36
47−33
away record
37−38
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.2
1.38
home runs / game
1.01
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.0
0.59
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

NYY · ARI · 176 days
New York YankeesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Sep 19at ARIARI 5 − 3
Sep 18at ARINYY 9 − 2
Apr 3, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 7
Apr 2, 2025at NYYARI 4 − 3
Apr 1, 2025at NYYARI 7 − 5
Apr 3, 2024at ARINYY 6 − 5
Apr 2, 2024at ARIARI 7 − 0
Apr 1, 2024at ARINYY 5 − 2
Sep 25, 2023at NYYNYY 6 − 4
Sep 24, 2023at NYYARI 7 − 1

NYY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W
Sep 12vs NYM2 − 12L
Sep 11vs NYM6 − 4W
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W
Sep 9vs COL6 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 19vs NYY5 − 3W
Sep 18vs NYY2 − 9L
Sep 16vs MIA3 − 4L
Sep 15vs MIA2 − 4L
Sep 14vs MIA8 − 7W
Sep 13vs TEX6 − 7L
Sep 12vs TEX2 − 6L
Sep 11vs TEX9 − 1W
Sep 9at KC2 − 5L
Sep 8at KC5 − 3W