bayesRatings

Brewers at Phillies

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final MIL 4 – PHI 1
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL112000000460
PHI010000000161
Team box
MIL·PHI
6
hits
6
2
home runs
0
1
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
148
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL2-4211
Christian YelichMIL1-3111
William ContrerasMIL1-4002
Bryson StottPHI2-3000
Joey OrtizMIL1-4000
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Henderson (W)MIL5.04133
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00001
Aaron Nola (L)PHI6.04418

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: PHI 0 · MIL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 54%, PHI 46% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.0 PHI
Expected total
8.5
BrewersThe matchupPhillies
−119Our fair odds+119
4.5Expected runs4.0
+0.42Power rating+0.17
5.1Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.3
8.8Hits / game8.1
0.95Home runs / game1.15
4.1Walks drawn / game3.2
98−59Season record87−70
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11954%−12655.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+11946%+10548.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byPHI wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more30%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 21 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 1.33 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·PHI
Sep 22 at PHI
last game
Sep 22 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
MIL·PHI
+0.42
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
5.1
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
98−59
season record
87−70
52−26
home record
42−34
46−33
away record
45−36
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.1
0.95
home runs / game
1.15
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.7
0.45
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

MIL · PHI · 179 days
Milwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 4−6
Sep 22at PHIPHI 6 − 4
Jun 14at MILMIL 4 − 0
Jun 13at MILPHI 9 − 8
Jun 12at MILMIL 6 − 0
Sep 4, 2025at MILPHI 2 − 0
Sep 3, 2025at MILMIL 6 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at MILPHI 10 − 8
Jun 1, 2025at PHIMIL 5 − 2
May 31, 2025at PHIMIL 17 − 7
May 30, 2025at PHIMIL 6 − 2

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 22at PHI4 − 6L
Sep 20at BAL3 − 0W
Sep 19at BAL1 − 0W
Sep 18at BAL6 − 5W
Sep 17at PIT4 − 7L
Sep 16at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 15at PIT5 − 1W
Sep 13vs CIN3 − 4L
Sep 12vs CIN13 − 9W
Sep 11vs CIN20 − 0W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 22vs MIL6 − 4W
Sep 20at NYM7 − 2W
Sep 19at NYM3 − 10L
Sep 18at NYM3 − 6L
Sep 17at NYM3 − 0W
Sep 16at WSH3 − 0W
Sep 15at WSH3 − 6L
Sep 13at ATL9 − 4W
Sep 12at ATL2 − 12L
Sep 11at ATL5 − 6L