bayesRatings

Brewers at Orioles

MLB · Saturday, Sep 19 · 3:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final MIL 1 – BAL 0
← MLB / Sep 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL010000000130
BAL000000000040
Team box
MIL·BAL
3
hits
4
0
home runs
0
1
walks
3
11
strikeouts
4
130
pitches thrown
111
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gary SanchezMIL1-3001
Leody TaverasBAL1-2000
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-4000
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4000
Rece HindsBAL1-3000
William ContrerasMIL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert Gasser (W)MIL7.03032
Aaron Ashby (S)MIL1.00001
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL8.031110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · MIL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 59%, BAL 41% · Updated Sep 19

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
9.0
BrewersThe matchupOrioles
−145Our fair odds+145
5.2Expected runs3.9
+0.41Power rating−0.04
5.2Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.7
8.8Hits / game7.9
0.96Home runs / game1.23
4.2Walks drawn / game3.7
96−58Season record75−79
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · BAL chance
Our model fair59.2%40.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14559%−10751.8%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+14541%−11252.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byBAL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·BAL
Sep 18 at BAL
last game
Sep 18 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 154+ games
MIL·BAL
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
96−58
season record
75−79
52−26
home record
36−40
44−32
away record
39−39
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
7.9
0.96
home runs / game
1.23
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.44
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

MIL · BAL · 175 days
Milwaukee BrewersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
Sep 18at BALMIL 6 − 5
May 21, 2025at MILBAL 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
May 19, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 4
Apr 14, 2024at BALBAL 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at BALMIL 11 − 5
Apr 12, 2024at BALMIL 11 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at MILBAL 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2023at MILMIL 10 − 2
Jun 6, 2023at MILMIL 4 − 3

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Sep 18at BAL6 − 5W
Sep 17at PIT4 − 7L
Sep 16at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 15at PIT5 − 1W
Sep 13vs CIN3 − 4L
Sep 12vs CIN13 − 9W
Sep 11vs CIN20 − 0W
Sep 9vs CHC8 − 6W
Sep 8vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 7vs CHC4 − 3W

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 18vs MIL5 − 6L
Sep 16at NYM7 − 1W
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W
Sep 9vs CLE9 − 5W
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W