bayesRatings

Brewers at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Sep 18 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final MIL 6 – BAL 5
← MLB / Sep 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIL03000000216100
BAL00300000205120
Team box
MIL·BAL
10
hits
12
1
home runs
1
6
walks
3
10
strikeouts
13
194
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson ChourioMIL2-5113
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4113
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5100
Coby MayoBAL3-4100
Colton CowserBAL2-3000
Samuel BasalloBAL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dustin MayMIL2.16314
Trevor Megill (W)MIL1.02201
Chad Patrick (S)MIL1.00001
Cade PovichBAL3.25323
Grant Wolfram (L)BAL1.02001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
MIL +3
12345678910
largest lead: BAL 0 · MIL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 59%, BAL 41% · Updated Sep 18

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
9.0
BrewersThe matchupOrioles
−144Our fair odds+144
5.2Expected runs3.9
+0.41Power rating−0.04
5.2Runs / game4.5
3.9Allowed / game4.7
8.8Hits / game7.8
0.96Home runs / game1.23
4.2Walks drawn / game3.7
95−58Season record75−78
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · BAL chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14459%−15460.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+14441%+12943.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byBAL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more47%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 15 Kstarted
BALCade Povich SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·BAL
Sep 17 at PIT
last game
Sep 16 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 153+ games
MIL·BAL
+0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.2
runs / game
4.5
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
95−58
season record
75−78
52−26
home record
36−39
43−32
away record
39−39
L1
streak
W3
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
7.8
0.96
home runs / game
1.23
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.44
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

MIL · BAL · 174 days
Milwaukee BrewersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
May 21, 2025at MILBAL 8 − 4
May 20, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
May 19, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 4
Apr 14, 2024at BALBAL 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2024at BALMIL 11 − 5
Apr 12, 2024at BALMIL 11 − 1
Jun 8, 2023at MILBAL 6 − 3
Jun 7, 2023at MILMIL 10 − 2
Jun 6, 2023at MILMIL 4 − 3
Apr 13, 2022at BALMIL 4 − 2

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 17at PIT4 − 7L
Sep 16at PIT5 − 4W
Sep 15at PIT5 − 1W
Sep 13vs CIN3 − 4L
Sep 12vs CIN13 − 9W
Sep 11vs CIN20 − 0W
Sep 9vs CHC8 − 6W
Sep 8vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 7vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 6at CIN8 − 12L

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 16at NYM7 − 1W
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W
Sep 9vs CLE9 − 5W
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L