bayesRatings

Orioles at Mets

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 15 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final BAL 7 – NYM 5
← MLB / Sep 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
BAL02000000113781
NYM111000000115120
Team box
BAL·NYM
8
hits
12
4
home runs
1
1
walks
5
17
strikeouts
6
163
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL2-5113
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL2-5211
Bo BichetteNYM3-6001
Pete AlonsoBAL1-5111
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-4111
Carson BengeNYM1-5211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane BazBAL4.07322
Alex Hoppe (W)BAL1.01011
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.01000
Sean ManaeaNYM5.14206
Jonathan Pintaro (L)NYM1.02212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
BAL +3
1234567891011
largest lead: NYM 1 · BAL 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, NYM 53% · Updated Sep 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.7 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.0
OriolesThe matchupMets
+114Our fair odds−114
4.3Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating−0.01
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.19Home runs / game1.26
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
73−78Season record69−81
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11447%+11446.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11453%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 15 Kstarted
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 8.27 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYM
Sep 14 at NYM
last game
Sep 14 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 150+ games
BAL·NYM
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
73−78
season record
69−81
36−39
home record
34−41
37−39
away record
35−40
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.19
home runs / game
1.26
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.60
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · NYM · 171 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
Sep 14at NYMBAL 2 − 1
Jul 10, 2025at BALBAL 7 − 3
Jul 10, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at BALNYM 7 − 6
Aug 21, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Aug 20, 2024at NYMBAL 9 − 5
Aug 19, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2023at BALBAL 2 − 0
Aug 5, 2023at BALBAL 7 − 3
Aug 4, 2023at BALBAL 10 − 3

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W
Sep 9vs CLE9 − 5W
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 5vs BOS0 − 5L
Sep 4vs BOS0 − 1L

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 14vs BAL1 − 2L
Sep 13at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 12at NYY12 − 2W
Sep 11at NYY4 − 6L
Sep 9at MIA15 − 14W
Sep 8at MIA7 − 5W
Sep 7at MIA9 − 4W
Sep 6vs SF4 − 2W
Sep 5vs SF5 − 9L
Sep 4vs SF10 − 6W