bayesRatings

Orioles at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Citi Field · Final BAL 7 – NYM 1
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL123000001791
NYM000100000170
Team box
BAL·NYM
9
hits
7
4
home runs
0
2
walks
1
11
strikeouts
8
134
pitches thrown
145
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL3-4312
Samuel BasalloBAL2-4112
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-4112
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4111
Marcus SemienNYM1-4001
A.J. EwingNYM2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Bassitt (W)BAL6.25116
Xzavion Curry (L)NYM3.06613

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +6
BAL +6
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · BAL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, NYM 53% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.6 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.1
OriolesThe matchupMets
+111Our fair odds−111
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.05Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game8.0
1.21Home runs / game1.26
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
74−78Season record69−82
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11147%−10350.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−11153%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.2our margin————
NYMNew York Mets−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 6%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 2%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: 1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more38%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more28%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALChris Bassitt SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 15 Kstarted
NYMXzavion Curry RP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYM
Sep 15 at NYM
last game
Sep 15 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
BAL·NYM
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
74−78
season record
69−82
36−39
home record
34−42
38−39
away record
35−40
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.0
1.21
home runs / game
1.26
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.60
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · NYM · 172 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
Sep 15at NYMBAL 7 − 5
Sep 14at NYMBAL 2 − 1
Jul 10, 2025at BALBAL 7 − 3
Jul 10, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 1
Jul 8, 2025at BALNYM 7 − 6
Aug 21, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Aug 20, 2024at NYMBAL 9 − 5
Aug 19, 2024at NYMNYM 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2023at BALBAL 2 − 0
Aug 5, 2023at BALBAL 7 − 3

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L
Sep 12at TOR3 − 7L
Sep 11at TOR7 − 4W
Sep 9vs CLE9 − 5W
Sep 8vs CLE5 − 9L
Sep 7vs CLE6 − 4W
Sep 6vs BOS1 − 3L
Sep 5vs BOS0 − 5L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Sep 15vs BAL5 − 7L
Sep 14vs BAL1 − 2L
Sep 13at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 12at NYY12 − 2W
Sep 11at NYY4 − 6L
Sep 9at MIA15 − 14W
Sep 8at MIA7 − 5W
Sep 7at MIA9 − 4W
Sep 6vs SF4 − 2W
Sep 5vs SF5 − 9L