bayesRatings

Phillies at Nationals

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 16 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final PHI 3 – WSH 0
← MLB / Sep 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI200000100350
WSH000000000040
Team box
PHI·WSH
5
hits
4
0
home runs
0
13
walks
2
7
strikeouts
8
128
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BohmPHI2-2001
Luis ArraezPHI1-2001
Daylen LileWSH2-4000
Bryce HarperPHI1-4200
Bryson StottPHI0-3001
Justin CrawfordPHI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI7.04015
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00002
Jared Simpson (L)WSH0.11240

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · PHI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 54%, WSH 46% · Updated Sep 16

Expected margin
PHI by 0.6
Expected score
PHI 5.5 – 4.9 WSH
Expected total
10.3
PhilliesThe matchupNationals
−118Our fair odds+118
5.5Expected runs4.9
+0.14Power rating−0.10
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.3Allowed / game5.1
8.1Hits / game8.5
1.17Home runs / game1.32
3.1Walks drawn / game3.5
83−68Season record71−81
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair54.2%45.8%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11854%−19165.6%———
WSHWashington Nationals+11846%+15938.6%———
SpreadPHI by 0.6
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 0.6 expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 12%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 13%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more42%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more33%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 24 Kstarted
WSHJared Simpson RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Sep 15 at WSH
last game
Sep 15 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 151+ games
PHI·WSH
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
83−68
season record
71−81
41−34
home record
37−40
42−34
away record
34−41
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.5
1.17
home runs / game
1.32
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.51
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

PHI · WSH · 172 days
Philadelphia PhilliesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Sep 15at WSHWSH 6 − 3
Aug 6at PHIPHI 7 − 3
Aug 5at PHIWSH 10 − 4
Aug 4at PHIPHI 5 − 0
Aug 3at PHIPHI 6 − 3
Jun 25at WSHPHI 10 − 5
Jun 24at WSHPHI 5 − 4
Jun 23at WSHPHI 14 − 9
Jun 22at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Apr 1at PHIPHI 6 − 5

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 15at WSH3 − 6L
Sep 13at ATL9 − 4W
Sep 12at ATL2 − 12L
Sep 11at ATL5 − 6L
Sep 10vs HOU1 − 2L
Sep 9vs HOU11 − 7W
Sep 8vs HOU5 − 6L
Sep 7vs ATL1 − 0W
Sep 6vs ATL4 − 5L
Sep 5vs ATL4 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W4
Sep 15vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 13vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L
Sep 4at LAD3 − 5L