bayesRatings

Angels at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, Sep 13 · 12:35 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final LAA 5 – WSH 6
← MLB / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000110021540
WSH000002046131
Team box
LAA·WSH
4
hits
13
2
home runs
0
6
walks
2
13
strikeouts
7
154
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Moises BallesterosLAA1-2112
Zach NetoLAA1-4211
Yohandy MoralesWSH2-4201
Daylen LileWSH2-4101
CJ AbramsWSH2-4100
Jacob YoungWSH1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson RodriguezLAA5.17214
Luke Murphy (L)LAA1.04411
Riley CornelioWSH2.01014
Erik Tolman (W)WSH1.00012
Jack Sinclair (S)WSH1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: WSH 2 · LAA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 44%, WSH 56% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 5.3 – 4.9 LAA
Expected total
10.2
AngelsThe matchupNationals
+129Our fair odds−129
4.9Expected runs5.3
−0.29Power rating−0.12
4.0Runs / game5.1
4.6Allowed / game5.1
7.8Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.32
3.1Walks drawn / game3.5
56−92Season record69−81
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12944%+11446.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−12956%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 16%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more40%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 14 Kstarted
WSHRiley Cornelio RP · last 1 start: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·WSH
Sep 12 at WSH
last game
Sep 12 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 148+ games
LAA·WSH
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.0
runs / game
5.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.1
56−92
season record
69−81
30−44
home record
35−40
26−48
away record
34−41
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.32
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.55
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

LAA · WSH · 169 days
Los Angeles AngelsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Sep 12at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Sep 11at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at LAAWSH 7 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at LAAWSH 15 − 9
Aug 11, 2024at WSHLAA 6 − 4
Aug 10, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 9, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Apr 12, 2023at LAALAA 3 − 2
Apr 11, 2023at LAALAA 2 − 0

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 12at WSH5 − 6L
Sep 11at WSH3 − 4L
Sep 9at BOS6 − 4W
Sep 8at BOS6 − 1W
Sep 7at BOS2 − 5L
Sep 6at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 5at PIT6 − 1W
Sep 4at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 2vs NYY3 − 6L
Sep 1vs NYY3 − 7L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Sep 12vs LAA6 − 5W
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L
Sep 4at LAD3 − 5L
Sep 2vs ATL0 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W