bayesRatings

Angels at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Sep 12 · 3:05 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final LAA 5 – WSH 6
← MLB / Sep 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
LAA0000000320542
WSH13000000116111
Team box
LAA·WSH
4
hits
11
1
home runs
0
7
walks
4
10
strikeouts
9
149
pitches thrown
157
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vaughn GrissomLAA1-5112
Abimelec OrtizWSH2-2102
Keibert RuizWSH3-4100
CJ AbramsWSH2-5101
Wade MecklerLAA1-2101
Denzer GuzmanLAA1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walbert UrenaLAA6.09427
Jose Fermin (L)LAA0.10010
Andrew AlvarezWSH7.01048
Jack Sinclair (W)WSH1.10011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
LAA +4
12345678910
largest lead: WSH 4 · LAA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 44%, WSH 56% · Updated Sep 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 5.3 – 4.9 LAA
Expected total
10.2
AngelsThe matchupNationals
+127Our fair odds−127
4.9Expected runs5.3
−0.28Power rating−0.12
4.0Runs / game5.1
4.5Allowed / game5.1
7.8Hits / game8.4
0.97Home runs / game1.33
3.0Walks drawn / game3.5
56−91Season record68−81
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+12744%+10947.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−12756%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.4our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 16%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more40%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more31%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 15 Kstarted
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·WSH
Sep 11 at WSH
last game
Sep 11 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
LAA·WSH
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.0
runs / game
5.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.1
56−91
season record
68−81
30−44
home record
34−40
26−47
away record
34−41
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.4
0.97
home runs / game
1.33
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.54
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

LAA · WSH · 168 days
Los Angeles AngelsWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 6−4
Sep 11at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Jun 29, 2025at LAAWSH 7 − 4
Jun 28, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 2
Jun 27, 2025at LAAWSH 15 − 9
Aug 11, 2024at WSHLAA 6 − 4
Aug 10, 2024at WSHWSH 5 − 4
Aug 9, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 2
Apr 12, 2023at LAALAA 3 − 2
Apr 11, 2023at LAALAA 2 − 0
Apr 10, 2023at LAAWSH 6 − 4

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 11at WSH3 − 4L
Sep 9at BOS6 − 4W
Sep 8at BOS6 − 1W
Sep 7at BOS2 − 5L
Sep 6at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 5at PIT6 − 1W
Sep 4at PIT0 − 1L
Sep 2vs NYY3 − 6L
Sep 1vs NYY3 − 7L
Aug 31vs NYY10 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 11vs LAA4 − 3W
Sep 9at SD2 − 9L
Sep 8at SD4 − 5L
Sep 7at SD2 − 3L
Sep 6at LAD5 − 7L
Sep 5at LAD5 − 6L
Sep 4at LAD3 − 5L
Sep 2vs ATL0 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATL9 − 5W
Aug 31vs MIA6 − 3W