bayesRatings

Phillies at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Sep 17 · 6:15 PM CT · Citi Field · Final PHI 3 – NYM 0
← MLB / Sep 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000010110380
NYM000000000041
Team box
PHI·NYM
8
hits
4
0
home runs
0
5
walks
5
6
strikeouts
8
119
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryce HarperPHI3-4001
Bryson StottPHI2-3100
Justin CrawfordPHI1-2001
Bo BichetteNYM1-4000
Mark VientosNYM1-2000
Carson BengeNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (W)PHI7.03034
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01002
Nolan McLean (L)NYM6.07135

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · PHI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Sep 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.8
PhilliesThe matchupMets
−111Our fair odds+111
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.16Power rating−0.03
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game4.6
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.16Home runs / game1.25
3.2Walks drawn / game3.2
84−68Season record69−83
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NYM chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−11153%+10548.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11147%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byNYM wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 12 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NYM
Sep 16 at WSH
last game
Sep 16 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 152+ games
PHI·NYM
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
84−68
season record
69−83
41−34
home record
34−43
43−34
away record
35−40
W1
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.16
home runs / game
1.25
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.51
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

PHI · NYM · 173 days
Philadelphia PhilliesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Jul 19at PHINYM 6 − 1
Jul 18at PHIPHI 6 − 1
Jul 16at PHINYM 4 − 1
Jun 28at NYMPHI 5 − 4
Jun 27at NYMNYM 6 − 2
Jun 26at NYMPHI 2 − 1
Jun 21at PHIPHI 6 − 2
Jun 20at PHIPHI 15 − 3
Jun 18at PHINYM 6 − 4
Sep 11, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 4

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 16at WSH3 − 0W
Sep 15at WSH3 − 6L
Sep 13at ATL9 − 4W
Sep 12at ATL2 − 12L
Sep 11at ATL5 − 6L
Sep 10vs HOU1 − 2L
Sep 9vs HOU11 − 7W
Sep 8vs HOU5 − 6L
Sep 7vs ATL1 − 0W
Sep 6vs ATL4 − 5L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Sep 16vs BAL1 − 7L
Sep 15vs BAL5 − 7L
Sep 14vs BAL1 − 2L
Sep 13at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 12at NYY12 − 2W
Sep 11at NYY4 − 6L
Sep 9at MIA15 − 14W
Sep 8at MIA7 − 5W
Sep 7at MIA9 − 4W
Sep 6vs SF4 − 2W