bayesRatings

Rays at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 12:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TB 0 – NYY 2
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB000000000030
NYY00020000250
Team box
TB·NYY
3
hits
5
0
home runs
1
0
walks
1
8
strikeouts
11
117
pitches thrown
107
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cody BellingerNYY1-4112
Jose CaballeroNYY1-3000
Spencer JonesNYY1-3000
Ben RiceNYY1-3100
George Lombard Jr.NYY1-3000
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick Martinez (L)TB6.05217
Carlos Rodon (W)NYY8.03008
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 46%, NYY 54% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.8 TB
Expected total
8.2
RaysThe matchupYankees
+116Our fair odds−116
3.8Expected runs4.3
+0.19Power rating+0.25
4.6Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.7Hits / game7.8
1.06Home runs / game1.39
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
95−60Season record89−66
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYY chance
Our model fair46.3%53.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11646%————
NYYNew York Yankees−11654%————
SpreadNYY by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 9%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 10 Kstarted
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYY
Sep 20 vs BOS
last game
Sep 20 at ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 155+ games
TB·NYY
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
4.6
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
95−60
season record
89−66
55−26
home record
42−32
40−34
away record
47−34
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
7.8
1.06
home runs / game
1.39
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.57
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TB · NYY · 178 days
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Jul 9at TBNYY 12 − 4
Jul 8at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 7at TBTB 6 − 4
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0
May 22at NYYTB 4 − 2
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 11at TBTB 5 − 4
Apr 10at TBTB 5 − 3
Aug 20, 2025at TBNYY 6 − 4

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 20vs BOS5 − 1W
Sep 19vs BOS2 − 1W
Sep 18vs BOS2 − 4L
Sep 17vs ATH10 − 1W
Sep 16vs ATH4 − 3W
Sep 15vs ATH2 − 1W
Sep 13vs HOU14 − 4W
Sep 12vs HOU3 − 2W
Sep 11vs HOU3 − 1W
Sep 10at ATL1 − 3L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W
Sep 12vs NYM2 − 12L
Sep 11vs NYM6 − 4W
Sep 10vs COL10 − 3W