bayesRatings

Rays at Yankees

MLB · Thursday, Sep 24 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TB 4 – NYY 6
← MLB / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB002011000491
NYY00000132672
Team box
TB·NYY
9
hits
7
0
home runs
2
7
walks
3
8
strikeouts
7
127
pitches thrown
181
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George Lombard Jr.NYY2-4213
Junior CamineroTB2-5002
Austin WellsNYY1-2211
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4001
Yandy DiazTB2-4200
Amed RosarioNYY1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ian SeymourTB5.01003
Steven Matz (L)TB1.12202
Cam SchlittlerNYY3.03125
Bradley Hanner (W)NYY2.02000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
TB +4
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · TB 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 46%, NYY 54% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.8 TB
Expected total
8.1
RaysThe matchupYankees
+117Our fair odds−117
3.8Expected runs4.3
+0.18Power rating+0.26
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.6Hits / game7.8
1.04Home runs / game1.40
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
96−62Season record91−67
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYY chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11746%+12444.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−11754%−14859.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYY
Sep 23 at NYY
last game
Sep 23 vs TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
TB·NYY
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
96−62
season record
91−67
55−26
home record
44−33
41−36
away record
47−34
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
7.8
1.04
home runs / game
1.40
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.57
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

TB · NYY · 180 days
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Sep 23at NYYNYY 9 − 2
Sep 22at NYYTB 6 − 1
Sep 22at NYYNYY 2 − 0
Jul 9at TBNYY 12 − 4
Jul 8at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 7at TBTB 6 − 4
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0
May 22at NYYTB 4 − 2
Apr 12at TBTB 5 − 4

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 23at NYY2 − 9L
Sep 22at NYY6 − 1W
Sep 22at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 20vs BOS5 − 1W
Sep 19vs BOS2 − 1W
Sep 18vs BOS2 − 4L
Sep 17vs ATH10 − 1W
Sep 16vs ATH4 − 3W
Sep 15vs ATH2 − 1W
Sep 13vs HOU14 − 4W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W
Sep 13vs NYM2 − 0W