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Pistons at Cavaliers

NBA · Monday, May 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final DET 103 – CLE 112
← NBA / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET24322126103
CLE21313822112
Team box
DET·CLE
42-83
field goals
34-78
10-23
3-pointers
14-41
9-12
free throws
30-34
35
rebounds
33
23
assists
23
20
turnovers
15
50
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE374352
James HardenCLE3724011
Caris LeVertDET312443
Cade CunninghamDET391936
Evan MobleyCLE391785
Tobias HarrisDET361685

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +21
DET +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 21 · DET 7lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 48%, CLE 52% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
DET by 0.2
Expected score
DET 114.3 – 114.2 CLE
Expected total
228.5
PistonsThe matchupCavaliers
+107Our fair odds−107
114.3Expected points114.2
+0.75Power rating+0.57
117.8Points / game119.5
109.6Allowed / game115.4
48.7FG%48.3
35.63P%36.1
45.6Rebounds / game44.4
60−22 · 6−4 postSeason record52−30 · 5−5 post
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+10748%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−10752%————
SpreadDET by 0.2
DETDetroit Pistons−0.2our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.5
Over228.5our total————
Under228.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 0.2 expected
Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%
← DET wins byCLE wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more40%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more27%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.5 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CLE
May 9 at CLE
last game
May 9 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 11, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETCaris LeVert · right heel; contusionQuestionable
DETKevin Huerter · left adductor; strainQuestionable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEThomas Bryant · low back; spasmsQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
DET·CLE
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.57
117.8
points / game
119.5
109.6
points allowed / game
115.4
60−22 · 6−4 post
season record
52−30 · 5−5 post
32−9
home record
27−14
28−13
away record
25−16
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
48.7
FG%
48.3
35.6
3P%
36.1
45.6
rebounds / game
44.4
27.8
assists / game
28.3
15.1
turnovers / game
14.0
57.9
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

DET · CLE · 182 days
Detroit PistonsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
May 9at CLECLE 116 − 109post
May 7at DETDET 107 − 97post
May 5at DETDET 111 − 101post
Mar 3at CLECLE 113 − 109
Feb 27at DETDET 122 − 119
Jan 4at CLEDET 114 − 110
Oct 27, 2025at DETCLE 116 − 95
Mar 28, 2025at DETDET 133 − 122
Feb 5, 2025at DETCLE 118 − 115
Jan 27, 2025at CLECLE 110 − 91

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 9at CLE109 − 116L
May 7vs CLE107 − 97W
May 5vs CLE111 − 101W
May 3vs ORL116 − 94W
May 1at ORL93 − 79W
Apr 29vs ORL116 − 109W
Apr 27at ORL88 − 94L
Apr 25at ORL105 − 113L
Apr 22vs ORL98 − 83W
Apr 19vs ORL101 − 112L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 9vs DET116 − 109W
May 7at DET97 − 107L
May 5at DET101 − 111L
May 3vs TOR114 − 102W
May 1at TOR110 − 112L
Apr 29vs TOR125 − 120W
Apr 26at TOR89 − 93L
Apr 23at TOR104 − 126L
Apr 20vs TOR115 − 105W
Apr 18vs TOR126 − 113W