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Raptors at Cavaliers

NBA · Sunday, May 3 · 6:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final TOR 102 – CLE 114
← NBA / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR26231934102
CLE24253827114
Team box
TOR·CLE
38-87
field goals
38-85
8-28
3-pointers
11-39
18-26
free throws
27-37
33
rebounds
60
25
assists
23
14
turnovers
17
50
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR372496
RJ BarrettTOR432346
Jarrett AllenCLE3322192
Donovan MitchellCLE352231
James HardenCLE371863
Jamal SheadTOR361437

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +22
TOR +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 22 · TOR 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 34%, CLE 66% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
CLE by 5.0
Expected score
CLE 117.0 – 112.0 TOR
Expected total
228.9
RaptorsThe matchupCavaliers
+193Our fair odds−193
112.0Expected points117.0
+0.15Power rating+0.57
114.6Points / game119.5
111.8Allowed / game115.4
48.2FG%48.3
35.53P%36.1
42.1Rebounds / game44.4
46−36 · 3−3 postSeason record52−30 · 3−3 post
6−4Last 106−4
Immanuel QuickleyOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CLE chance
Our model fair34.1%65.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+19334%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−19366%————
SpreadCLE by 5.0
TORToronto Raptors+5our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.9
Over228.9our total————
Under228.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 5.0 expected
Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%
← TOR wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more54%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more38%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.9 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.531%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GJamal Sheadstarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CLE
May 1 vs CLE
last game
May 1 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 3, 5:00 PM ET
TORImmanuel Quickley · right hamstring; strainOut
TORBrandon Ingram · right heel; inflammationDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
TOR·CLE
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.57
114.6
points / game
119.5
111.8
points allowed / game
115.4
46−36 · 3−3 post
season record
52−30 · 3−3 post
24−17
home record
27−14
22−19
away record
25−16
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
48.2
FG%
48.3
35.5
3P%
36.1
42.1
rebounds / game
44.4
29.5
assists / game
28.3
13.7
turnovers / game
14.0
53.2
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

TOR · CLE · 174 days
Toronto RaptorsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
May 1at TORTOR 112 − 110post
Apr 29at CLECLE 125 − 120post
Apr 26at TORTOR 93 − 89post
Apr 23at TORTOR 126 − 104post
Apr 20at CLECLE 115 − 105post
Apr 18at CLECLE 126 − 113post
Nov 24, 2025at TORTOR 110 − 99
Nov 13, 2025at CLETOR 126 − 113
Oct 31, 2025at CLETOR 112 − 101
Feb 12, 2025at TORCLE 131 − 108

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 1vs CLE112 − 110W
Apr 29at CLE120 − 125L
Apr 26vs CLE93 − 89W
Apr 23vs CLE126 − 104W
Apr 20at CLE105 − 115L
Apr 18at CLE113 − 126L
Apr 12vs BKN136 − 101W
Apr 10at NY95 − 112L
Apr 9vs MIA128 − 114W
Apr 7vs MIA121 − 95W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 1at TOR110 − 112L
Apr 29vs TOR125 − 120W
Apr 26at TOR89 − 93L
Apr 23at TOR104 − 126L
Apr 20vs TOR115 − 105W
Apr 18vs TOR126 − 113W
Apr 12vs WSH130 − 117W
Apr 10at ATL102 − 124L
Apr 8vs ATL122 − 116W
Apr 6at MEM142 − 126W