bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:00 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final CLE 102 – ATL 124
← NBA / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE22261737102
ATL27343528124
Team box
CLE·ATL
39-86
field goals
45-93
7-27
3-pointers
16-44
17-18
free throws
18-25
40
rebounds
46
25
assists
27
19
turnovers
13
54
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
CJ McCollumATL242944
James HardenCLE252005
Jalen JohnsonATL251892
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL321811
Jaylon TysonCLE241543
Jonathan KumingaATL231551

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +36
CLE +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 36 · CLE 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 53%, ATL 47% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
CLE by 1.8
Expected score
CLE 120.4 – 118.5 ATL
Expected total
238.9
CavaliersThe matchupHawks
−115Our fair odds+115
120.4Expected points118.5
+0.60Power rating+0.24
119.6Points / game118.4
115.3Allowed / game115.9
48.2FG%47.4
36.23P%36.9
44.4Rebounds / game43.5
51−29Season record45−35
8−2Last 107−3
Donovan Mitchell · Jarrett Allen
Sam Merrill · Thomas BryantOutJock Landale

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATL chance
Our model fair53.5%46.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−11553%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+11547%————
SpreadCLE by 1.8
CLECleveland Cavaliers−1.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.9
Over238.9our total————
Under238.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 1.8 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← CLE wins byATL wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more45%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more31%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.9 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.568%
Total over 238.549%
Total over 248.531%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GMax Strusstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATL
Apr 8 vs ATL
last game
Apr 8 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 10, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDonovan Mitchell · right ankle; injury managementOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right knee; injury managementOut
CLESam Merrill · left hamstring; injury managementOut
CLEThomas Bryant · left calf; strainOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left great toe; bone bruiseProbable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJock Landale · right high ankle; sprainOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
CLE·ATL
+0.60
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
119.6
points / game
118.4
115.3
points allowed / game
115.9
51−29
season record
45−35
26−14
home record
23−17
25−15
away record
22−18
W4
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
7−3
48.2
FG%
47.4
36.2
3P%
36.9
44.4
rebounds / game
43.5
28.3
assists / game
30.2
13.8
turnovers / game
14.2
51.9
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

CLE · ATL · 157 days
Cleveland CavaliersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Apr 8at CLECLE 122 − 116
Nov 28, 2025at ATLATL 130 − 123
Nov 2, 2025at CLECLE 117 − 109
Jan 30, 2025at CLECLE 137 − 115
Nov 29, 2024at ATLATL 117 − 101
Nov 27, 2024at CLEATL 135 − 124
Mar 6, 2024at ATLATL 112 − 101
Jan 20, 2024at ATLCLE 116 − 95
Dec 16, 2023at CLECLE 127 − 119
Nov 28, 2023at CLECLE 128 − 105

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Apr 8vs ATL122 − 116W
Apr 6at MEM142 − 126W
Apr 5vs IND117 − 108W
Apr 2at GS118 − 111W
Mar 31at LAL113 − 127L
Mar 30at UTAH122 − 113W
Mar 27vs MIA149 − 128W
Mar 25vs MIA103 − 120L
Mar 24vs ORL136 − 131W
Mar 21at NO111 − 106W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Apr 8at CLE116 − 122L
Apr 6vs NY105 − 108L
Apr 3at BKN141 − 107W
Apr 1at ORL130 − 101W
Mar 30vs BOS112 − 102W
Mar 28vs SAC123 − 113W
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W