bayesRatings

Hawks at Nets

NBA · Friday, Apr 3 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final ATL 141 – BKN 107
← NBA / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL35362743141
BKN25303022107
Team box
ATL·BKN
51-90
field goals
39-79
20-39
3-pointers
12-28
19-24
free throws
17-20
41
rebounds
33
36
assists
24
13
turnovers
20
56
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
CJ McCollumATL252527
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342143
Jalen JohnsonATL2818115
Nic ClaxtonBKN251652
Onyeka OkongwuATL271574
Malachi SmithBKN171520

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +34
ATL +34
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 0 · ATL 34lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 73%, BKN 27% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
ATL by 8.0
Expected score
ATL 117.3 – 109.3 BKN
Expected total
226.6
HawksThe matchupNets
−267Our fair odds+267
117.3Expected points109.3
+0.19Power rating−1.03
118.3Points / game106.0
116.0Allowed / game115.5
47.4FG%44.3
36.83P%34.1
43.5Rebounds / game39.6
44−33Season record18−58
8−2Last 101−9
Jock LandaleOutDanny Wolf · Day'Ron Sharpe
Egor Demin · Michael Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BKN chance
Our model fair72.7%27.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−26773%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+26727%————
SpreadATL by 8.0
ATLAtlanta Hawks−8our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+8our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.6
Over226.6our total————
Under226.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 8.0 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%
← ATL wins byBKN wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more63%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more46%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GDrake Powellstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BKN
Apr 1 at ORL
last game
Mar 31 vs CHA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 2, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJock Landale · right high ankle; sprainOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDanny Wolf · left ankle; sprainOut
BKNDay'Ron Sharpe · left thumb; surgeryOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · left hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
ATL·BKN
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−1.03
118.3
points / game
106.0
116.0
points allowed / game
115.5
44−33
season record
18−58
23−16
home record
10−27
21−17
away record
8−31
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
1−9
47.4
FG%
44.3
36.8
3P%
34.1
43.5
rebounds / game
39.6
30.3
assists / game
25.1
14.2
turnovers / game
15.9
51.8
points in paint / game
43.9

Rating Trend

ATL · BKN · 150 days
Atlanta HawksBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 4−6
Mar 12at ATLATL 108 − 97
Feb 22at ATLATL 115 − 104
Oct 29, 2025at BKNATL 117 − 112
Apr 10, 2025at BKNATL 133 − 109
Mar 16, 2025at BKNBKN 122 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 116
Mar 2, 2024at BKNBKN 114 − 102
Feb 29, 2024at BKNBKN 124 − 97
Dec 6, 2023at ATLBKN 114 − 113
Nov 22, 2023at ATLATL 147 − 145

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 1at ORL130 − 101W
Mar 30vs BOS112 − 102W
Mar 28vs SAC123 − 113W
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W

BKN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Mar 31vs CHA86 − 117L
Mar 29vs SAC116 − 99W
Mar 27at LAL99 − 116L
Mar 25at GS106 − 109L
Mar 23at POR99 − 134L
Mar 22at SAC122 − 126L
Mar 20vs NY92 − 93L
Mar 18vs OKC92 − 121L
Mar 16vs POR95 − 114L
Mar 14at PHI97 − 104L