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Heat at Raptors

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 7 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final MIA 95 – TOR 121
← NBA / Apr 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA2724251995
TOR32323027121
Team box
MIA·TOR
33-91
field goals
49-99
12-44
3-pointers
12-28
17-19
free throws
11-16
44
rebounds
56
26
assists
34
15
turnovers
12
34
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR302585
Andrew WigginsMIA332451
Brandon IngramTOR292363
Jakob PoeltlTOR261763
RJ BarrettTOR311682
Tyler HerroMIA301456

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +27
MIA +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 27 · MIA 2lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 45%, TOR 55% · Updated Apr 7

Expected margin
TOR by 1.0
Expected score
TOR 116.3 – 115.3 MIA
Expected total
231.6
HeatThe matchupRaptors
+120Our fair odds−120
115.3Expected points116.3
+0.09Power rating+0.06
120.8Points / game114.4
118.4Allowed / game112.1
46.6FG%48.0
35.73P%35.2
46.6Rebounds / game42.1
41−37Season record43−35
3−7Last 104−6
Nikola Jovic · Terry RozierOutChucky Hepburn

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+12045%————
TORToronto Raptors−12055%————
SpreadTOR by 1.0
MIAMiami Heat+1our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.6
Over231.6our total————
Under231.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 1.0 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more43%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more29%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.6 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TOR
Apr 4 vs WSH
last game
Apr 5 at BOS
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 7, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIANikola Jovic · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right foot; sorenessProbable
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left quad; contusionQuestionable
TORImmanuel Quickley · right foot; plantar fasciitisQuestionable
TORSandro Mamukelashvili · left knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
MIA·TOR
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
120.8
points / game
114.4
118.4
points allowed / game
112.1
41−37
season record
43−35
25−15
home record
21−17
16−22
away record
22−18
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
46.6
FG%
48.0
35.7
3P%
35.2
46.6
rebounds / game
42.1
28.7
assists / game
29.5
13.6
turnovers / game
13.8
54.5
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

MIA · TOR · 154 days
Miami HeatToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Dec 23, 2025at MIATOR 112 − 91
Dec 15, 2025at MIATOR 106 − 96
Feb 21, 2025at TORMIA 120 − 111
Dec 12, 2024at MIAMIA 114 − 104
Dec 1, 2024at TORTOR 119 − 116
Nov 29, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 111
Apr 14, 2024at MIAMIA 118 − 103
Apr 12, 2024at MIAMIA 125 − 103
Jan 17, 2024at TORTOR 121 − 97
Dec 6, 2023at TORMIA 112 − 103

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 5at BOS101 − 115L
Apr 3at MEM128 − 96W
Apr 1vs SAC115 − 123L
Mar 31at DET116 − 127L
Mar 29vs ORL139 − 87W
Mar 27vs NO119 − 106W
Mar 25at LAC94 − 119L
Mar 23at UTAH143 − 127W
Mar 22at PHX98 − 120L
Mar 20at DEN115 − 121L