bayesRatings

Raptors at Celtics

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 2:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final TOR 101 – BOS 115
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR26203124101
BOS26282635115
Team box
TOR·BOS
40-84
field goals
47-88
8-20
3-pointers
8-28
13-18
free throws
13-16
31
rebounds
44
31
assists
25
15
turnovers
18
58
points in paint
76
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS352663
Jayson TatumBOS3423137
Neemias QuetaBOS341874
Payton PritchardBOS301713
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR321621
RJ BarrettTOR351554

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +18
TOR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 18 · TOR 8lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 27%, BOS 73% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
BOS by 8.5
Expected score
BOS 112.1 – 103.6 TOR
Expected total
215.7
RaptorsThe matchupCeltics
+271Our fair odds−271
103.6Expected points112.1
+0.07Power rating+0.86
114.5Points / game114.6
112.1Allowed / game107.1
48.0FG%46.7
35.13P%36.5
42.2Rebounds / game46.5
43−34Season record52−25
5−5Last 108−2
Chucky Hepburn · Immanuel QuickleyOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair26.9%73.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+27127%————
BOSBoston Celtics−27173%————
SpreadBOS by 8.5
TORToronto Raptors+8.5our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 215.7
Over215.7our total————
Under215.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 8.5 expected
Toronto Raptors by 51 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 50 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%
← TOR wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more63%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more47%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

215.7 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 205.570%
Total over 215.550%
Total over 225.530%
Total from 206 to 22540%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·BOS
Apr 3 at MEM
last game
Apr 3 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 4, 5:00 PM ET
TORChucky Hepburn · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
TORImmanuel Quickley · right foot; plantar fasciitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
TOR·BOS
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.86
114.5
points / game
114.6
112.1
points allowed / game
107.1
43−34
season record
52−25
21−17
home record
26−11
22−17
away record
26−14
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
48.0
FG%
46.7
35.1
3P%
36.5
42.2
rebounds / game
46.5
29.5
assists / game
24.6
13.8
turnovers / game
12.2
52.9
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

TOR · BOS · 152 days
Toronto RaptorsBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 9−1
Jan 9at BOSBOS 125 − 117
Dec 20, 2025at TORBOS 112 − 96
Dec 7, 2025at TORBOS 121 − 113
Feb 25, 2025at TORBOS 111 − 101
Jan 15, 2025at TORTOR 110 − 97
Dec 31, 2024at BOSBOS 125 − 71
Nov 16, 2024at BOSBOS 126 − 123
Jan 15, 2024at TORBOS 105 − 96
Dec 29, 2023at BOSBOS 120 − 118
Nov 17, 2023at TORBOS 108 − 105

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 3at MEM128 − 96W
Apr 1vs SAC115 − 123L
Mar 31at DET116 − 127L
Mar 29vs ORL139 − 87W
Mar 27vs NO119 − 106W
Mar 25at LAC94 − 119L
Mar 23at UTAH143 − 127W
Mar 22at PHX98 − 120L
Mar 20at DEN115 − 121L
Mar 18at CHI139 − 109W

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 3at MIL133 − 101W
Apr 1at MIA147 − 129W
Mar 30at ATL102 − 112L
Mar 29at CHA114 − 99W
Mar 27vs ATL109 − 102W
Mar 25vs OKC119 − 109W
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W