bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Pistons

NBA · Thursday, May 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final CLE 97 – DET 107
← NBA / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE1825322297
DET25292528107
Team box
CLE·DET
34-81
field goals
39-80
7-32
3-pointers
14-28
22-27
free throws
15-20
36
rebounds
42
20
assists
21
11
turnovers
13
52
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE373163
Cade CunninghamDET4225310
Jarrett AllenCLE312273
Tobias HarrisDET372170
Duncan RobinsonDET371733
Daniss JenkinsDET261464

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +14
CLE +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 14 · CLE 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 40%, DET 60% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
DET by 3.1
Expected score
DET 115.9 – 112.8 CLE
Expected total
228.7
CavaliersThe matchupPistons
+152Our fair odds−152
112.8Expected points115.9
+0.57Power rating+0.75
119.5Points / game117.8
115.4Allowed / game109.6
48.3FG%48.7
36.13P%35.6
44.4Rebounds / game45.6
52−30 · 4−4 postSeason record60−22 · 5−3 post
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · DET chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers+15240%————
DETDetroit Pistons−15260%————
SpreadDET by 3.1
CLECleveland Cavaliers+3.1our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 3.1 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%
← CLE wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more49%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more34%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·DET
May 5 at DET
last game
May 5 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 6, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLESam Merrill · left hamstring; strainQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETKevin Huerter · left adductor; strainDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
CLE·DET
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
119.5
points / game
117.8
115.4
points allowed / game
109.6
52−30 · 4−4 post
season record
60−22 · 5−3 post
27−14
home record
32−9
25−16
away record
28−13
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
48.3
FG%
48.7
36.1
3P%
35.6
44.4
rebounds / game
45.6
28.3
assists / game
27.8
14.0
turnovers / game
15.1
52.0
points in paint / game
57.9

Rating Trend

CLE · DET · 178 days
Cleveland CavaliersDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 4−6
May 5at DETDET 111 − 101post
Mar 3at CLECLE 113 − 109
Feb 27at DETDET 122 − 119
Jan 4at CLEDET 114 − 110
Oct 27, 2025at DETCLE 116 − 95
Mar 28, 2025at DETDET 133 − 122
Feb 5, 2025at DETCLE 118 − 115
Jan 27, 2025at CLECLE 110 − 91
Oct 25, 2024at CLECLE 113 − 101
Mar 1, 2024at DETCLE 110 − 100

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 5at DET101 − 111L
May 3vs TOR114 − 102W
May 1at TOR110 − 112L
Apr 29vs TOR125 − 120W
Apr 26at TOR89 − 93L
Apr 23at TOR104 − 126L
Apr 20vs TOR115 − 105W
Apr 18vs TOR126 − 113W
Apr 12vs WSH130 − 117W
Apr 10at ATL102 − 124L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 5vs CLE111 − 101W
May 3vs ORL116 − 94W
May 1at ORL93 − 79W
Apr 29vs ORL116 − 109W
Apr 27at ORL88 − 94L
Apr 25at ORL105 − 113L
Apr 22vs ORL98 − 83W
Apr 19vs ORL101 − 112L
Apr 12at IND133 − 121W
Apr 10at CHA118 − 100W