bayesRatings

Magic at Pistons

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final ORL 83 – DET 98
← NBA / Apr 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL2125162183
DET2521381498
Team box
ORL·DET
26-80
field goals
39-85
8-32
3-pointers
6-26
23-32
free throws
14-24
42
rebounds
57
17
assists
22
19
turnovers
23
34
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET3727611
Jalen SuggsORL321964
Paolo BancheroORL341868
Tobias HarrisDET3316111
Franz WagnerORL321271
Desmond BaneORL341242

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +27
ORL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 27 · ORL 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 30%, DET 70% · Updated Apr 22

Expected margin
DET by 7.6
Expected score
DET 115.3 – 107.7 ORL
Expected total
223.0
MagicThe matchupPistons
+231Our fair odds−231
107.7Expected points115.3
+0.13Power rating+0.73
115.7Points / game117.8
115.1Allowed / game109.6
46.5FG%48.7
34.13P%35.6
43.4Rebounds / game45.6
45−37 · 1−0 postSeason record60−22 · 0−1 post
7−3Last 107−3
Jonathan IsaacOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · DET chance
Our model fair30.2%69.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+23130%————
DETDetroit Pistons−23170%————
SpreadDET by 7.6
ORLOrlando Magic+7.6our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.0
Over223.0our total————
Under223.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 7.6 expected
Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%
← ORL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more60%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more45%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.0 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·DET
Apr 19 at DET
last game
Apr 19 vs ORL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 22, 5:00 PM ET
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
ORL·DET
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.73
115.7
points / game
117.8
115.1
points allowed / game
109.6
45−37 · 1−0 post
season record
60−22 · 0−1 post
26−16
home record
32−9
19−21
away record
28−13
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
46.5
FG%
48.7
34.1
3P%
35.6
43.4
rebounds / game
45.6
26.5
assists / game
27.8
14.2
turnovers / game
15.1
51.1
points in paint / game
57.9

Rating Trend

ORL · DET · 163 days
Orlando MagicDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Apr 19at DETORL 112 − 101post
Apr 6at ORLORL 123 − 107
Mar 1at ORLDET 106 − 92
Nov 28, 2025at DETORL 112 − 109
Oct 29, 2025at DETDET 135 − 116
Jan 25, 2025at ORLORL 121 − 113
Jan 1, 2025at DETDET 105 − 96
Nov 23, 2024at ORLORL 111 − 100
Mar 3, 2024at ORLORL 113 − 91
Feb 24, 2024at DETORL 112 − 109

ORL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 19at DET112 − 101W
Apr 12at BOS108 − 113L
Apr 10at CHI127 − 103W
Apr 8vs MIN132 − 120W
Apr 6vs DET123 − 107W
Apr 5at NO112 − 108W
Apr 3at DAL138 − 127W
Apr 1vs ATL101 − 130L
Mar 31vs PHX115 − 111W
Mar 29at TOR87 − 139L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Apr 19vs ORL101 − 112L
Apr 12at IND133 − 121W
Apr 10at CHA118 − 100W
Apr 8vs MIL137 − 111W
Apr 6at ORL107 − 123L
Apr 4at PHI116 − 93W
Apr 2vs MIN113 − 108W
Mar 31vs TOR127 − 116W
Mar 30at OKC110 − 114L
Mar 28at MIN109 − 87W