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Pistons at Pacers

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 5:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final DET 133 – IND 121
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET41402725133
IND27362632121
Team box
DET·IND
50-89
field goals
41-90
15-33
3-pointers
23-54
18-22
free throws
16-20
48
rebounds
31
35
assists
31
18
turnovers
16
62
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paul ReedDET222663
Tobias HarrisDET222441
Quenton JacksonIND302108
Obi ToppinIND182122
Kobe BrownIND342072
Ethan ThompsonIND381836

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +27
DET +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 0 · DET 27lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 73%, IND 27% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
DET by 9.1
Expected score
DET 120.0 – 110.9 IND
Expected total
230.8
PistonsThe matchupPacers
−270Our fair odds+270
120.0Expected points110.9
+0.70Power rating−0.52
117.6Points / game112.3
109.5Allowed / game120.3
48.6FG%45.8
35.53P%35.6
45.5Rebounds / game42.1
59−22Season record19−62
7−3Last 104−6
Jalen DurenOutAaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ben Sheppard · Ivica Zubac
Jarace Walker

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · IND chance
Our model fair73.0%27.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−27073%————
INDIndiana Pacers+27027%————
SpreadDET by 9.1
DETDetroit Pistons−9.1our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.8
Over230.8our total————
Under230.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 9.1 expected
Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%
← DET wins byIND wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more66%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more49%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.8 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
FPaul Reedstarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GKobe Brownstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FJalen Slawsonstarted
CMicah Potterstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·IND
Apr 10 at CHA
last game
Apr 10 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETJalen Duren · right knee; injury managementOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · n/a; thoracic and lumbar injury managementOut
INDBen Sheppard · right hip; sprainOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJarace Walker · left foot; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left ankle; sprainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · bilateral hamstring; injury managementOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
DET·IND
+0.70
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
117.6
points / game
112.3
109.5
points allowed / game
120.3
59−22
season record
19−62
32−9
home record
11−29
27−13
away record
8−33
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.6
FG%
45.8
35.5
3P%
35.6
45.5
rebounds / game
42.1
27.7
assists / game
27.6
15.1
turnovers / game
14.5
57.9
points in paint / game
46.2

Rating Trend

DET · IND · 158 days
Detroit PistonsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Jan 17at DETDET 121 − 78
Nov 24, 2025at INDDET 122 − 117
Nov 17, 2025at DETDET 127 − 112
Jan 29, 2025at INDIND 133 − 119
Jan 16, 2025at DETIND 111 − 100
Nov 29, 2024at INDDET 130 − 106
Oct 23, 2024at DETIND 115 − 109
Mar 20, 2024at DETIND 122 − 103
Feb 22, 2024at INDIND 129 − 115
Dec 11, 2023at DETIND 131 − 123

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Apr 10at CHA118 − 100W
Apr 8vs MIL137 − 111W
Apr 6at ORL107 − 123L
Apr 4at PHI116 − 93W
Apr 2vs MIN113 − 108W
Mar 31vs TOR127 − 116W
Mar 30at OKC110 − 114L
Mar 28at MIN109 − 87W
Mar 26vs NO129 − 108W
Mar 25vs ATL129 − 130L

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Apr 10vs PHI94 − 105L
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W