bayesRatings

76ers at Pacers

NBA · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:30 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final PHI 105 – IND 94
← NBA / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI28303116105
IND2130261794
Team box
PHI·IND
42-104
field goals
33-88
5-29
3-pointers
14-50
16-19
free throws
14-16
58
rebounds
52
17
assists
25
8
turnovers
18
64
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI393285
Paul GeorgePHI332152
Jarace WalkerIND291742
VJ EdgecombePHI401695
Quenton JacksonIND271646
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI321571

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +14
PHI +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 8 · PHI 14lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 54%, IND 46% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
PHI by 1.1
Expected score
PHI 117.8 – 116.7 IND
Expected total
234.5
76ersThe matchupPacers
−118Our fair odds+118
117.8Expected points116.7
−0.14Power rating−0.52
115.9Points / game112.5
116.5Allowed / game120.5
46.3FG%45.9
34.63P%35.7
43.4Rebounds / game42.0
43−37Season record19−61
5−5Last 104−6
Cameron Payne · Joel Embiid
Johni BroomeOutAaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Pascal Siakam

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · IND chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−11854%————
INDIndiana Pacers+11846%————
SpreadPHI by 1.1
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−1.1our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.5
Over234.5our total————
Under234.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 1.1 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%
← PHI wins byIND wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more43%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more29%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.5 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CAdem Bonastarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GKobe Brownstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CMicah Potterstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·IND
Apr 9 at HOU
last game
Apr 9 at BKN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 10, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHICameron Payne · right hamstring; strainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · n/a; appendectomy recoveryOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · n/a; thoracic and lumbar injury managementOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left ankle; sprainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · bilateral hamstring; injury managementOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDBen Sheppard · right hip; sprainQuestionable
INDJarace Walker · sacral; contusionQuestionable
INDKobe Brown · lumbar; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
PHI·IND
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.52
115.9
points / game
112.5
116.5
points allowed / game
120.5
43−37
season record
19−61
22−18
home record
11−28
21−19
away record
8−33
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
46.3
FG%
45.9
34.6
3P%
35.7
43.4
rebounds / game
42.0
24.6
assists / game
27.7
13.7
turnovers / game
14.4
49.9
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

PHI · IND · 157 days
Philadelphia 76ersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Feb 24at INDPHI 135 − 114
Jan 19at PHIPHI 113 − 104
Dec 12, 2025at PHIPHI 115 − 105
Mar 14, 2025at PHIIND 112 − 100
Jan 18, 2025at INDIND 115 − 102
Dec 13, 2024at PHIIND 121 − 107
Oct 27, 2024at INDPHI 118 − 114
Jan 25, 2024at INDIND 134 − 122
Nov 14, 2023at PHIIND 132 − 126
Nov 12, 2023at PHIPHI 137 − 126

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 9at HOU102 − 113L
Apr 6at SA102 − 115L
Apr 4vs DET93 − 116L
Apr 3vs MIN115 − 103W
Apr 1at WSH153 − 131W
Mar 30at MIA109 − 119L
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W

IND · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 9at BKN123 − 94W
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L