bayesRatings

Pacers at Nets

NBA · Thursday, Apr 9 · 6:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final IND 123 – BKN 94
← NBA / Apr 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND31323525123
BKN1423352294
Team box
IND·BKN
51-98
field goals
37-96
8-31
3-pointers
8-38
13-18
free throws
12-19
66
rebounds
43
43
assists
20
12
turnovers
10
80
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Obi ToppinIND192693
E.J. LiddellBKN3726101
Ben SarafBKN281956
Micah PotterIND2318142
Ethan ThompsonIND371576
Jarace WalkerIND301498

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +32
IND +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 4 · IND 32lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 58%, BKN 42% · Updated Apr 9

Expected margin
IND by 1.9
Expected score
IND 113.0 – 111.1 BKN
Expected total
224.2
PacersThe matchupNets
−139Our fair odds+139
113.0Expected points111.1
−0.52Power rating−1.08
112.4Points / game106.1
120.8Allowed / game115.5
45.9FG%44.4
35.83P%34.3
41.6Rebounds / game39.3
18−61Season record20−59
3−7Last 103−7
Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Pascal SiakamOut (5 each)Danny Wolf · Day'Ron Sharpe
Egor Demin · Josh Minott
Michael Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · BKN chance
Our model fair58.2%41.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−13958%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+13942%————
SpreadIND by 1.9
INDIndiana Pacers−1.9our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.2
Over224.2our total————
Under224.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.9 expected
Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%
← IND wins byBKN wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more45%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more31%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.2 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FJalen Slawsonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CMicah Potterstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GMalachi Smithstarted
GTyson Etiennestarted
GBen Sarafstarted
FTrevon Scottstarted
FE.J. Liddellstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·BKN
Apr 7 vs MIN
last game
Apr 7 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 9, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · n/a; thoracic and lumbar injury managementOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left ankle; sprainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · bilateral hamstring; injury managementOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDBen Sheppard · right hip; strainQuestionable
INDJarace Walker · sacral; contusionQuestionable
INDKobe Brown · lumbar; sprainQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDanny Wolf · left ankle; sprainOut
BKNDay'Ron Sharpe · left thumb; surgeryOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNJosh Minott · left ankle; sorenessOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · left hamstring; strainOut
BKNNic Claxton · right fifth finger;Out
BKNNoah Clowney · sprain left ankle; injury managementOut
BKNNolan Traore · restOut
BKNTerance Mann · right patella; tendinosisOut
BKNZiaire Williams · left foot; tenosynovitis / bursitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
IND·BKN
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
−1.08
112.4
points / game
106.1
120.8
points allowed / game
115.5
18−61
season record
20−59
11−28
home record
12−28
7−33
away record
8−31
L3
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
3−7
45.9
FG%
44.4
35.8
3P%
34.3
41.6
rebounds / game
39.3
27.5
assists / game
25.1
14.4
turnovers / game
15.9
46.0
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

IND · BKN · 156 days
Indiana PacersBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BKN 4−6
Feb 11at BKNIND 115 − 110
Nov 5, 2025at INDBKN 112 − 103
Mar 22, 2025at INDIND 108 − 103
Mar 20, 2025at INDIND 105 − 99
Jan 6, 2025at BKNIND 113 − 99
Dec 4, 2024at BKNBKN 99 − 90
Apr 3, 2024at BKNBKN 115 − 111
Apr 1, 2024at INDIND 133 − 111
Mar 16, 2024at INDIND 121 − 100
Dec 10, 2022at INDBKN 136 − 133

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 7vs MIN104 − 124L
Apr 5at CLE108 − 117L
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L

BKN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 7vs MIL96 − 90W
Apr 5vs WSH121 − 115W
Apr 3vs ATL107 − 141L
Mar 31vs CHA86 − 117L
Mar 29vs SAC116 − 99W
Mar 27at LAL99 − 116L
Mar 25at GS106 − 109L
Mar 23at POR99 − 134L
Mar 22at SAC122 − 126L
Mar 20vs NY92 − 93L