Final Box Score
from the game summary| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Player | Team | G | A | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg | TB | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | TB | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Nikita Kucherov | TB | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brandon Hagel | TB | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Tyson Foerster | PHI | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Brayden Point | TB | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Goalie | Team | SA | SV | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | PHI | 35 | 32 | .914 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | TB | 15 | 14 | .933 |
For context, not in our forecast.
Game Flow
score marginFor context, not in our forecast.
Final · our forecast was PHI 40%, TB 60% · Updated Oct 5
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · NovigFull price table
| Team | Our modelfair | Kalshi | Polymarket US | ProphetX | Novig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | |||||
| PHIPhiladelphia Flyers | +14840% | — | — | — | — |
| TBTampa Bay Lightning | −14860% | — | — | — | — |
| SpreadTB by 1.0 | |||||
| PHIPhiladelphia Flyers | +1our margin | — | — | — | — |
| TBTampa Bay Lightning | −1our margin | — | — | — | — |
| Totalwe expect 5.9 | |||||
| Over | 5.9our total | — | — | — | — |
| Under | 5.9our total | — | — | — | — |
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.0 expectedCentered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.
Total range
5.9 expectedCentered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.
Starting Goalies
from the box scoreStarting goalies are part of our forecast.
Rest and Schedule
before this gameFor context, not in our forecast.