bayesRatings

Kings at Rangers

NHL · Monday, Oct 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final LA 6 – NYR 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA3216
NYR1113
Team box
LA·NYR
26
shots
26
1 of 3
power play
1 of 1
41.0
faceoff %
59.0
19
hits
24
13
blocked shots
14
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Darcy KuemperLA2623.885
Dylan GarandNYR1715.882
James ReimerNYR85.625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +4
LA +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · LA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 45%, NYR 55% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.1 – 2.7 LA
Expected total
5.7
KingsThe matchupRangers
+121Our fair odds−121
2.7Expected goals3.1
−0.17Power rating−0.02
2.3Goals / game3.2
3.6Allowed / game2.8
27.2Shots / game24.4
50.3Faceoff %53.5
20.6Hits / game26.2
2−7Season record7−6
2−8Last 105−5
Alex Turcotte · Jakub Dvorak
Jan Jenik · Mats Zuccarello
OutAdam Sykora · Aidan Thompson
Igor Shesterkin · Joe Veleno
Joonas Korpisalo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · NYR chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket US47.7%56.7%
ProphetX47.2%55.9%
Novig46.0%54.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 5:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 5:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 5:57 PM CT
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+12145%+10947.7%+11047.7%+11247.2%+11746.0%
NYRNew York Rangers−12155%−13156.7%−13156.7%−12755.9%−12054.5%
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings+0.4our margin+1.5 −23970.5%+1.5 −22869.5%+1.5 −22168.9%+1.5 −21368.0%
NYRNew York Rangers−0.4our margin−1.5 +19833.5%−1.5 +19034.5%−1.5 +19334.1%−1.5 +20333.0%
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our totalo5.5 −12655.7%o5.5 −12655.7%o5.5 −11353.1%o5.5 −10852.0%
Under5.7our totalu5.5 +10548.7%u5.5 +10548.7%u5.5 +10249.6%u5.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 23%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 13%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more23%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.571%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 3.19 GAAstarted
NYRDylan Garand G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·NYR
Oct 24 at NJ
last game
Oct 24 at OTT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 26, 2026, 4:40 PM CT
Los Angeles Kings
LAQuinton Byfield · upper body, back about Oct 26Day-to-day
LAAlex Turcotte · undisclosed, back about Oct 29IR
LAJakub Dvorak · upper body, back about Oct 31IR
LAJan Jenik · undisclosed, back about Nov 7IR
LAMats Zuccarello · upper body, back about Nov 4IR
New York Rangers
NYRAdam Sykora · lower body, back about Jan 25, 2027IR
NYRAidan Thompson · undisclosed, back about Nov 13IR
NYRIgor Shesterkin · right knee, back about Sep 15, 2027IR
NYRJoe Veleno · right lower body, back about Jan 3, 2027IR
NYRJoonas Korpisalo · foot, back about Nov 9IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
LA·NYR
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
2.3
goals / game
3.2
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.8
2−7
season record
7−6
0−3
home record
6−0
2−4
away record
1−6
L1
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
5−5
27.2
shots / game
24.4
50.3
faceoff %
53.5
20.6
hits / game
26.2
15.6
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.9
takeaways / game
4.0
17.7
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

LA · NYR · 27 days
Los Angeles KingsNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 4−6
Mar 16at NYRLA 4 − 1
Jan 20at LALA 4 − 3
Mar 25, 2025at LALA 3 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at NYRLA 5 − 1
Jan 20, 2024at LALA 2 − 1
Dec 10, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 1
Feb 26, 2023at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Nov 22, 2022at LANYR 5 − 3
Jan 24, 2022at NYRNYR 3 − 2 SO
Jan 10, 2022at LALA 3 − 1

LA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 24at NJ1 − 3L
Oct 22at NYI3 − 2W
Oct 20at WSH5 − 2W
Oct 17vs BOS1 − 4L
Oct 13vs EDM1 − 4L
Oct 10at VGK1 − 2L
Oct 6vs FLA1 − 2L
Oct 3at SJ4 − 5L
Sep 30at COL4 − 8L
Apr 26vs COL1 − 5L

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 24at OTT4 − 7L
Oct 22at TOR4 − 5L
Oct 19vs ANA5 − 2W
Oct 17at CBJ0 − 1L
Oct 15at NJ1 − 7L
Oct 13vs TB4 − 1W
Oct 11vs VAN6 − 2W
Oct 9at WSH1 − 3L
Oct 6vs NYI5 − 2W
Oct 4vs UTAH4 − 2W