bayesRatings

Blues at Red Wings

NHL · Saturday, Oct 31 · 12:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena
← NHL / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 2.9 – 2.8 STL
Expected total
5.7
BluesThe matchupRed Wings
+104Our fair odds−104
2.8Expected goals2.9
+0.02Power rating−0.08
3.0Goals / game2.8
2.9Allowed / game2.9
27.2Shots / game29.9
49.2Faceoff %50.4
19.4Hits / game24.4
6−7Season record6−7
5−5Last 105−5
Dillon Dube · Ross Johnston
Torey Krug · Tyler TuckerOutAlbert Johansson · Dylan Larkin
Marco Kasper · Mason Appleton
Simon Edvinsson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · DET chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi11.7%90.6%
Polymarket US50.7%53.7%
ProphetX49.6%52.7%
Novig49.0%52.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshilive · 1:28 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 11:59 AM CTProphetXpre-game · 11:58 AM CTNovigpre-game · 11:58 AM CT
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Blues+10449%+75611.7%−10350.7%+10249.6%+10449.0%
DETDetroit Red Wings−10451%−96790.6%−11653.7%−11152.7%−10852.0%
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis BluesPKour margin+1.5 −27673.4%+1.5 −27673.4%+1.5 −26272.4%+1.5 −25171.5%
DETDetroit Red WingsPKour margin−1.5 +22930.4%−1.5 +22930.4%−1.5 +22930.4%−1.5 +24529.0%
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our totalo5.5 −12655.7%o5.5 −12154.7%o5.5 −11954.4%o5.5 −11353.0%
Under5.7our totalu5.5 +10149.7%u5.5 +10149.7%u5.5 +10349.3%u5.5 +11147.5%

The game has started: these are each venue’s last pre-game prices, except Kalshi’s moneyline, which is live. Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 21%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 23%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 10%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%
← STL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more28%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more18%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.571%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .924 save %, 2.63 GAAconfirmed
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 2.94 GAAconfirmed

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·DET
Oct 29 vs BOS
last game
Oct 29 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 31, 2026, 10:40 AM CT
St. Louis Blues
STLColton Parayko · upper body, back about Oct 31Day-to-day
STLDillon Dube · neck, back about Dec 4IR
STLRoss Johnston · lower body, back about Nov 3IR
STLTorey Krug · left ankle, back about Jul 1, 2027IR
STLTyler Tucker · left knee, back about Nov 12IR
Detroit Red Wings
DETAlbert Johansson · undisclosed, back about Nov 5Out
DETDylan Larkin · suspension, back about Nov 14IR
DETMarco Kasper · upper body, back about Nov 14IR
DETMason Appleton · undisclosed, back about Nov 10IR
DETSimon Edvinsson · contract dispute, back about Nov 28IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
STL·DET
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.0
goals / game
2.8
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.9
6−7
season record
6−7
4−3
home record
4−4
2−4
away record
2−3
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
27.2
shots / game
29.9
49.2
faceoff %
50.4
19.4
hits / game
24.4
11.5
blocked shots / game
14.8
3.6
takeaways / game
4.5
16.9
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

STL · DET · 32 days
St. Louis BluesDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Oct 28, 2025at STLDET 5 − 2
Oct 25, 2025at DETDET 6 − 4
Apr 1, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1 OT
Dec 23, 2024at DETSTL 4 − 0
Feb 24, 2024at DETDET 6 − 1
Dec 12, 2023at STLDET 6 − 4
Mar 23, 2023at DETSTL 4 − 3
Mar 21, 2023at STLDET 3 − 2 SO
Dec 9, 2021at STLSTL 6 − 2
Nov 24, 2021at DETDET 4 − 2

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 29vs BOS4 − 1W
Oct 27vs MTL0 − 2L
Oct 24vs CAR0 − 4L
Oct 22vs VGK6 − 2W
Oct 20vs WPG2 − 1W
Oct 17at NSH2 − 5L
Oct 15at MIN4 − 5L
Oct 13at OTT7 − 2W
Oct 10vs CBJ5 − 3W
Oct 8vs SJ2 − 3L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 29vs CHI4 − 1W
Oct 26at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 24at CGY1 − 4L
Oct 22at VAN5 − 2W
Oct 20at SEA3 − 4L
Oct 17vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 15vs PHI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs NJ4 − 5L
Oct 10at MTL0 − 1L
Oct 9vs SEA3 − 6L