bayesRatings

Senators at Ducks

NHL · Sunday, Nov 1 · 7:00 PM CT · Honda Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ANA 3.3 – 3.2 OTT
Expected total
6.5
SenatorsThe matchupDucks
+104Our fair odds−104
3.2Expected goals3.3
+0.12Power rating−0.16
3.1Goals / game3.3
3.1Allowed / game3.8
25.1Shots / game24.4
52.0Faceoff %47.2
25.4Hits / game25.8
8−6Season record5−8
5−5Last 103−7
Warren Foegele LW · Linus Ullmark G
William Eklund LW
OutIan Moore D · Pavel Mintyukov D
Ryan Poehling C · Troy Terry RW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · ANA chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi50.7%51.7%
Polymarket US51.7%52.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:18 AM CTPolymarket US4:17 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+10449%−10350.7%−10751.7%——
ANAAnaheim Ducks−10451%−10751.8%−11252.7%——
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa SenatorsPKour margin−1.5 +18934.5%−1.5 +18135.6%——
ANAAnaheim DucksPKour margin+1.5 −30675.3%+1.5 −32276.3%——
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our totalo8.5 −204295.3%o8.5 +14640.7%——
Under6.5our totalu8.5 −526898.1%u8.5 −347497.2%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 6%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 20%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 6%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 2%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more30%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more20%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
OTTJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 3.44 GAAexpected
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .864 save %, 4.00 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·ANA
Oct 29 at LA
last game
Oct 29 vs BUF
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Ottawa Senators
OTTWarren Foegele LW · right knee, back about Nov 7Out
OTTAndre Burakovsky LW · lower bodyDay-to-day
OTTLinus Ullmark G · lower body strainIR
OTTWilliam Eklund LW · ankle, back about Jan 5, 2027IR
Anaheim Ducks
ANAIan Moore D · lower body, back about Nov 8IR
ANAPavel Mintyukov D · lower bodyIR
ANARyan Poehling C · lower body, back about Nov 25IR
ANATroy Terry RW · hip surgery, back about Nov 21IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
OTT·ANA
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
3.1
goals / game
3.3
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.8
8−6
season record
5−8
5−2
home record
1−5
3−4
away record
4−3
L2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
25.1
shots / game
24.4
52.0
faceoff %
47.2
25.4
hits / game
25.8
16.0
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.4
takeaways / game
3.4
14.9
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

OTT · ANA · 31 days
Ottawa SenatorsAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 5−5
Mar 14at OTTOTT 2 − 0
Nov 20, 2025at ANAOTT 3 − 2
Dec 11, 2024at OTTOTT 5 − 1
Dec 1, 2024at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO
Mar 6, 2024at ANAANA 2 − 1
Feb 15, 2024at OTTANA 5 − 1
Dec 12, 2022at OTTOTT 3 − 0
Nov 25, 2022at ANAOTT 5 − 1
Jan 29, 2022at OTTANA 2 − 1
Nov 26, 2021at ANAANA 4 − 0

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 29at LA5 − 6L
Oct 27at VGK1 − 4L
Oct 24vs NYR7 − 4W
Oct 22vs SJ2 − 6L
Oct 21vs FLA5 − 1W
Oct 17at PHI1 − 3L
Oct 15vs NYI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs STL2 − 7L
Oct 12at NJ4 − 1W
Oct 10vs NSH3 − 2W

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 29vs BUF6 − 7L
Oct 27vs VAN5 − 6L
Oct 24at PHI5 − 4W
Oct 22at NJ1 − 4L
Oct 20at NYI2 − 3L
Oct 19at NYR2 − 5L
Oct 16vs BOS2 − 4L
Oct 13vs CGY2 − 4L
Oct 10at CGY4 − 2W
Oct 9at WPG5 − 1W