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Red Wings at Panthers

NHL · Monday, Nov 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
FLA by 0.6
Expected score
FLA 3.4 – 2.7 DET
Expected total
6.1
Red WingsThe matchupPanthers
+145Our fair odds−145
2.7Expected goals3.4
−0.08Power rating+0.03
2.8Goals / game3.0
2.9Allowed / game2.8
29.9Shots / game28.2
50.4Faceoff %47.0
24.4Hits / game32.5
6−7Season record7−6
5−5Last 106−4
Albert Johansson D · Marco Kasper C
Mason Appleton C · Simon Edvinsson DOut (4 each)Aleksander Barkov C · Brad Marchand LW
Jacob Markstrom G · Jonah Gadjovich LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · FLA chance
Our model fair40.8%59.2%
Kalshi42.7%63.6%
Polymarket US41.7%62.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:28 AM CTPolymarket US4:28 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+14541%+13442.7%+14041.7%——
FLAFlorida Panthers−14559%−17563.6%−16862.7%——
SpreadFLA by 0.6
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.6our margin+1.5 −20867.6%+1.5 −20867.6%——
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.6our margin−1.5 +12444.7%−1.5 +10548.7%——
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our totalo9.5 −204295.3%o9.5 +14640.7%——
Under6.1our totalu9.5 −526898.1%u9.5 −347497.2%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 0.6 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 20%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 22%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 11%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 14%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 8%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 3%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%
← DET wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more38%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .883 save %, 2.94 GAAexpected
FLAAkira Schmid G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 2.60 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·FLA
Oct 29 vs CHI
last game
Oct 30 vs WPG
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Detroit Red Wings
DETAlbert Johansson D · undisclosed, back about Nov 5Out
DETMarco Kasper C · upper body, back about Nov 10IR
DETMason Appleton C · undisclosed, back about Nov 10IR
DETSimon Edvinsson D · contract disputeIR
Florida Panthers
FLAAleksander Barkov C · left lower body, back about Nov 27IR
FLABrad Marchand LW · left leg, back about Nov 21IR
FLAJacob Markstrom G · upper body, back about Nov 4IR
FLAJonah Gadjovich LW · upper body surgery, back about Nov 28IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
DET·FLA
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
2.8
goals / game
3.0
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.8
6−7
season record
7−6
4−4
home record
2−1
2−3
away record
5−5
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
6−4
29.9
shots / game
28.2
50.4
faceoff %
47.0
24.4
hits / game
32.5
14.8
blocked shots / game
10.5
4.5
takeaways / game
3.7
15.0
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

DET · FLA · 31 days
Detroit Red WingsFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · FLA 6−4
Apr 15at FLAFLA 8 − 1
Mar 10at FLAFLA 4 − 3
Mar 6at DETFLA 3 − 1
Oct 15, 2025at DETDET 4 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at FLAFLA 4 − 1
Apr 6, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1
Jan 16, 2025at FLADET 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at FLAFLA 3 − 2 SO
Mar 2, 2024at DETFLA 4 − 0
Jan 17, 2024at FLADET 3 − 2 OT

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 29vs CHI4 − 1W
Oct 26at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 24at CGY1 − 4L
Oct 22at VAN5 − 2W
Oct 20at SEA3 − 4L
Oct 17vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 15vs PHI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs NJ4 − 5L
Oct 10at MTL0 − 1L
Oct 9vs SEA3 − 6L

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 27at WPG5 − 1W
Oct 25at CHI3 − 2W
Oct 22at PIT0 − 4L
Oct 21at OTT1 − 5L
Oct 17vs SEA8 − 3W
Oct 15vs VAN3 − 2W
Oct 13at CBJ7 − 3W
Oct 12at BUF3 − 5L
Oct 10vs MIN1 − 4L
Oct 6at LA2 − 1W