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Blackhawks at Panthers

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 6:30 PM CT · Amerant Bank Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
FLA by 1.4
Expected score
FLA 3.7 – 2.3 CHI
Expected total
6.0
BlackhawksThe matchupPanthers
+223Our fair odds−223
2.3Expected goals3.7
−0.58Power rating+0.03
2.1Goals / game3.0
3.7Allowed / game2.8
21.6Shots / game28.2
42.7Faceoff %47.0
16.3Hits / game32.5
4−9Season record7−6
4−6Last 106−4
Ryan Ellis DOutAleksander Barkov C · Brad Marchand LW
Jacob Markstrom G · Jonah Gadjovich LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · FLA chance
Our model fair30.9%69.1%
Kalshi33.5%72.4%
Polymarket US33.5%73.4%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:12 AM CTPolymarket US5:13 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+22331%+19833.5%+19833.5%——
FLAFlorida Panthers−22369%−26372.4%−27673.4%——
SpreadFLA by 1.4
CHIChicago Blackhawks+1.4our margin—−1.5 +22930.4%——
FLAFlorida Panthers−1.4our margin—+1.5 −1063999.1%——
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total—o7.5 +10149.7%——
Under6.0our total—u7.5 −257996.3%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Florida Panthers by 1.4 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 7 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 4%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 19%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 18%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 13%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 19%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 12%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 5%Florida Panthers by 6 goals: 1%Florida Panthers by 7 goals: 1%
← CHI wins byFLA wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more52%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more39%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more11%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.84 GAAexpected
FLAAkira Schmid G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 2.60 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·FLA
Oct 29 at DET
last game
Oct 30 vs WPG
5 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Chicago Blackhawks
CHIBowen Byram D · upper bodyDay-to-day
CHIRyan Ellis DIR
Florida Panthers
FLAAleksander Barkov C · left lower body, back about Nov 27IR
FLABrad Marchand LW · left leg, back about Nov 21IR
FLAJacob Markstrom G · upper body, back about Nov 4IR
FLAJonah Gadjovich LW · upper body surgery, back about Nov 28IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
CHI·FLA
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
2.1
goals / game
3.0
3.7
goals allowed / game
2.8
4−9
season record
7−6
4−4
home record
2−1
0−5
away record
5−5
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
21.6
shots / game
28.2
42.7
faceoff %
47.0
16.3
hits / game
32.5
11.3
blocked shots / game
10.5
4.2
takeaways / game
3.7
18.0
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

CHI · FLA · 31 days
Chicago BlackhawksFlorida Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · FLA 7−3
Oct 25at CHIFLA 3 − 2
Jan 25at CHIFLA 5 − 1
Oct 7, 2025at FLAFLA 3 − 2
Feb 1, 2025at FLAFLA 5 − 1
Nov 21, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 1
Nov 12, 2023at FLAFLA 4 − 3
Nov 4, 2023at CHICHI 5 − 2
Mar 10, 2023at FLAFLA 4 − 3 OT
Oct 25, 2022at CHICHI 4 − 2
Mar 31, 2022at FLAFLA 4 − 0

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 29at DET1 − 4L
Oct 27vs LA2 − 1W
Oct 25vs FLA2 − 3L
Oct 23vs MTL1 − 4L
Oct 17vs DAL0 − 4L
Oct 15vs WPG4 − 3W
Oct 13vs PIT5 − 3W
Oct 10vs CAR2 − 5L
Oct 8at NYI1 − 4L
Oct 6vs STL4 − 2W

FLA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 27at WPG5 − 1W
Oct 25at CHI3 − 2W
Oct 22at PIT0 − 4L
Oct 21at OTT1 − 5L
Oct 17vs SEA8 − 3W
Oct 15vs VAN3 − 2W
Oct 13at CBJ7 − 3W
Oct 12at BUF3 − 5L
Oct 10vs MIN1 − 4L
Oct 6at LA2 − 1W