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Sharks at Stars

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
DAL by 1.3
Expected score
DAL 3.8 – 2.5 SJ
Expected total
6.3
SharksThe matchupStars
+192Our fair odds−192
2.5Expected goals3.8
−0.27Power rating+0.17
2.9Goals / game2.7
3.4Allowed / game2.3
27.4Shots / game26.3
47.2Faceoff %56.3
25.6Hits / game20.2
7−7Season record7−6
4−6Last 106−4
Adam Gaudette RW · Alexander Wennberg C
Igor Chernyshov LW · Kyle Keyser G
Quentin Musty LWOut (5 each)Radek Faksa C · Kyle Capobianco D
Luke Krys D · Matt Duchene C
Oskar Back C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · DAL chance
Our model fair34.2%65.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+19234%————
DALDallas Stars−19266%————
SpreadDAL by 1.3
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.3our margin————
DALDallas Stars−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 1.3 expected
San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 2%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 5%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 20%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 17%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 19%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 12%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 5%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%Dallas Stars by 7 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more51%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more38%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
SJnot announced yet
DALnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·DAL
Oct 31 vs OTT
last game
Oct 29 vs MTL
6 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
San Jose Sharks
SJAdam Gaudette RWIR
SJAlexander Wennberg C · upper body, back about Nov 9IR
SJIgor Chernyshov LW · upper body, back about Nov 14IR
SJKyle Keyser G · upper body, back about Dec 1IR
SJQuentin Musty LW · upper body, back about Dec 1IR
Dallas Stars
DALRadek Faksa C · lower bodyOut
DALKyle Capobianco D · left leg, back about Nov 27IR
DALLuke Krys D · undisclosedIR
DALMatt Duchene C · abdomen, back about Jan 12, 2027IR
DALOskar Back C · finger fracture, back about Nov 14IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
SJ·DAL
−0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
2.9
goals / game
2.7
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.3
7−7
season record
7−6
3−3
home record
4−4
4−4
away record
3−2
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
27.4
shots / game
26.3
47.2
faceoff %
56.3
25.6
hits / game
20.2
14.4
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.8
takeaways / game
3.6
18.6
giveaways / game
13.8

Rating Trend

SJ · DAL · 32 days
San Jose SharksDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 9−1
Oct 5at DALDAL 5 − 0
Jan 10at SJSJ 5 − 4 OT
Dec 18, 2025at SJDAL 5 − 3
Dec 5, 2025at DALDAL 4 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at SJDAL 8 − 3
Nov 20, 2024at DALDAL 5 − 2
Oct 15, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 2 SO
Mar 26, 2024at SJDAL 6 − 3
Mar 5, 2024at SJDAL 7 − 6 OT
Mar 2, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 2 SO

SJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 29vs VAN3 − 2W
Oct 27vs BUF0 − 2L
Oct 24at BOS4 − 6L
Oct 22at OTT6 − 2W
Oct 20at MTL4 − 3W
Oct 19at TOR1 − 3L
Oct 17at DET3 − 4L
Oct 15at NSH3 − 2W
Oct 13vs BOS3 − 6L
Oct 10vs EDM1 − 3L

DAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 29vs MTL2 − 5L
Oct 27vs NJ1 − 5L
Oct 25vs NYI6 − 3W
Oct 22vs WPG3 − 2W
Oct 20vs BOS3 − 2W
Oct 17at CHI4 − 0W
Oct 14at COL3 − 2W
Oct 13vs COL2 − 3L
Oct 10at PIT1 − 2L
Oct 8at BUF4 − 0W