bayesRatings

Mets at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final NYM 6 – TEX 3
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0011031006101
TEX001200000331
Team box
NYM·TEX
10
hits
3
0
home runs
0
5
walks
2
4
strikeouts
15
143
pitches thrown
168
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-5202
Juan SotoNYM2-5001
Carson BengeNYM2-4201
Brandon NimmoTEX2-4100
Josh JungTEX1-4001
Francisco LindorNYM1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (W)NYM6.03229
Kodai Senga (S)NYM1.00002
MacKenzie GoreTEX5.04112
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX1.03310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
NYM +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 1 · NYM 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 48%, TEX 52% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.4
MetsThe matchupRangers
+108Our fair odds−108
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating−0.04
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.24Home runs / game1.13
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
71−85Season record78−78
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10848%+10548.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10852%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.1our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more26%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.19 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 9.82 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·TEX
Sep 20 vs PHI
last game
Sep 20 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
NYM·TEX
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
71−85
season record
78−78
36−45
home record
44−34
35−40
away record
34−44
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.24
home runs / game
1.13
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.58
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

NYM · TEX · 178 days
New York MetsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Sep 14, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at NYMTEX 3 − 2
Sep 12, 2025at NYMTEX 8 − 3
Jun 19, 2024at TEXTEX 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2024at TEXNYM 7 − 6
Jun 17, 2024at TEXNYM 14 − 2
Aug 30, 2023at NYMNYM 6 − 5
Aug 29, 2023at NYMTEX 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2023at NYMTEX 4 − 3
Jul 3, 2022at NYMNYM 4 − 1

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 20vs PHI2 − 7L
Sep 19vs PHI10 − 3W
Sep 18vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 17vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 16vs BAL1 − 7L
Sep 15vs BAL5 − 7L
Sep 14vs BAL1 − 2L
Sep 13at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 12at NYY12 − 2W
Sep 11at NYY4 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 20vs TOR2 − 7L
Sep 19vs TOR6 − 2W
Sep 18vs TOR7 − 1W
Sep 17vs BOS3 − 4L
Sep 16vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 15vs BOS4 − 2W
Sep 13at ARI7 − 6W
Sep 12at ARI6 − 2W
Sep 11at ARI1 − 9L
Sep 10at SEA3 − 4L