bayesRatings

Mets at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final NYM 7 – TEX 2
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM002000014780
TEX000020000241
Team box
NYM·TEX
8
hits
4
3
home runs
0
5
walks
1
7
strikeouts
6
116
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett BatyNYM1-1114
Juan SotoNYM1-2212
Marcus SemienNYM1-4111
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-4000
Jake BurgerTEX1-3101
Francisco LindorNYM1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nolan McLean (W)NYM7.03215
Cody BradfordTEX4.14201
Jacob Latz (L)TEX1.21112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +5
NYM +5
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · NYM 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 49%, TEX 51% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
8.4
MetsThe matchupRangers
+106Our fair odds−106
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.02Power rating−0.05
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.5Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.24Home runs / game1.12
3.2Walks drawn / game3.3
72−85Season record78−79
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · TEX chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+10649%−11653.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−10651%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York MetsPKour margin————
TEXTexas RangersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 13%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 17 Kstarted
TEXCody Bradford SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.24 ERA, 4 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·TEX
Sep 22 at TEX
last game
Sep 22 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
NYM·TEX
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
72−85
season record
78−79
36−45
home record
44−35
36−40
away record
34−44
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.24
home runs / game
1.12
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.59
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

NYM · TEX · 179 days
New York MetsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
Sep 22at TEXNYM 6 − 3
Sep 14, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at NYMTEX 3 − 2
Sep 12, 2025at NYMTEX 8 − 3
Jun 19, 2024at TEXTEX 5 − 3
Jun 18, 2024at TEXNYM 7 − 6
Jun 17, 2024at TEXNYM 14 − 2
Aug 30, 2023at NYMNYM 6 − 5
Aug 29, 2023at NYMTEX 2 − 1
Aug 28, 2023at NYMTEX 4 − 3

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 22at TEX6 − 3W
Sep 20vs PHI2 − 7L
Sep 19vs PHI10 − 3W
Sep 18vs PHI6 − 3W
Sep 17vs PHI0 − 3L
Sep 16vs BAL1 − 7L
Sep 15vs BAL5 − 7L
Sep 14vs BAL1 − 2L
Sep 13at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 12at NYY12 − 2W

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Sep 22vs NYM3 − 6L
Sep 20vs TOR2 − 7L
Sep 19vs TOR6 − 2W
Sep 18vs TOR7 − 1W
Sep 17vs BOS3 − 4L
Sep 16vs BOS7 − 3W
Sep 15vs BOS4 − 2W
Sep 13at ARI7 − 6W
Sep 12at ARI6 − 2W
Sep 11at ARI1 − 9L