bayesRatings

White Sox at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Sep 24 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final CHW 9 – KC 1
← MLB / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW3302100009120
KC000100000172
Team box
CHW·KC
12
hits
7
1
home runs
1
6
walks
1
12
strikeouts
10
134
pitches thrown
180
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TeelCHW2-2311
Miguel VargasCHW2-5202
Salvador PerezKC1-3111
Tristan PetersCHW1-5002
Andrew BenintendiCHW0-2002
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Sandlin (W)CHW6.05107
Randy Dobnak (L)KC1.16411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: KC 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 51%, KC 49% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
CHW by 0.5
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.2 KC
Expected total
8.9
White SoxThe matchupRoyals
−106Our fair odds+106
4.7Expected runs4.2
−0.01Power rating−0.15
4.8Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.9
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.28Home runs / game1.04
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
81−77Season record68−90
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · KC chance
Our model fair51.5%48.5%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox−10651%−14258.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10649%+11945.7%———
SpreadCHW by 0.5
CHWChicago White Sox−0.5our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.5 expected
Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 11%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 17%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byKC wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavid Sandlin SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 15 Kstarted
KCRandy Dobnak SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.70 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·KC
Sep 23 at KC
last game
Sep 23 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
CHW·KC
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.8
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.9
81−77
season record
68−90
46−32
home record
40−37
35−45
away record
28−53
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.28
home runs / game
1.04
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.51
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

CHW · KC · 180 days
Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
Sep 23at KCKC 5 − 4
Sep 22at KCCHW 14 − 11
Jun 28at CHWKC 5 − 4
Jun 27at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 26at CHWCHW 22 − 1
May 14at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 13at CHWCHW 6 − 5
May 12at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Apr 12at KCCHW 6 − 5
Apr 11at KCKC 2 − 0

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 23at KC4 − 5L
Sep 22at KC14 − 11W
Sep 20vs DET8 − 1W
Sep 19vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 18vs DET8 − 11L
Sep 17vs DET3 − 1W
Sep 16at CLE3 − 6L
Sep 15at CLE6 − 7L
Sep 14at CLE7 − 3W
Sep 13at STL1 − 3L

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Sep 23vs CHW5 − 4W
Sep 22vs CHW11 − 14L
Sep 20at PIT3 − 4L
Sep 19at PIT5 − 6L
Sep 18at PIT5 − 8L
Sep 17at HOU2 − 6L
Sep 16at HOU5 − 2W
Sep 15at HOU2 − 4L
Sep 13at BOS1 − 4L
Sep 12at BOS1 − 5L