bayesRatings

Knicks at Cavaliers

NBA · Saturday, May 23 · 7:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final NY 121 – CLE 108
← NBA / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY37233130121
CLE27272826108
Team box
NY·CLE
43-77
field goals
42-84
11-28
3-pointers
12-41
24-27
free throws
12-19
37
rebounds
34
27
assists
22
15
turnovers
18
42
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY413036
Evan MobleyCLE362462
Donovan MitchellCLE382314
Mikal BridgesNY392262
OG AnunobyNY312174
James HardenCLE411955

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +17
NY +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 0 · NY 17lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 48%, CLE 52% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
NY by 0.6
Expected score
NY 113.8 – 113.2 CLE
Expected total
227.1
KnicksThe matchupCavaliers
+107Our fair odds−107
113.8Expected points113.2
+0.78Power rating+0.61
116.5Points / game119.5
110.2Allowed / game115.4
47.7FG%48.3
37.23P%36.1
45.8Rebounds / game44.4
54−29 · 10−2 postSeason record52−30 · 8−8 post
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks+10748%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−10752%————
SpreadNY by 0.6
NYNew York Knicks−0.6our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.1
Over227.1our total————
Under227.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 0.6 expected
New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: <1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%
← NY wins byCLE wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more41%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more28%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.1 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·CLE
May 21 vs CLE
last game
May 21 at NY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
NY·CLE
+0.78
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
116.5
points / game
119.5
110.2
points allowed / game
115.4
54−29 · 10−2 post
season record
52−30 · 8−8 post
31−10
home record
27−14
23−19
away record
25−16
W9
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
5−5
47.7
FG%
48.3
37.2
3P%
36.1
45.8
rebounds / game
44.4
27.4
assists / game
28.3
13.6
turnovers / game
14.0
47.9
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

NY · CLE · 192 days
New York KnicksCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
May 21at NYNY 109 − 93post
May 19at NYNY 115 − 104post
Feb 24at CLECLE 109 − 94
Dec 25, 2025at NYNY 126 − 124
Oct 22, 2025at NYNY 119 − 111
Apr 11, 2025at NYCLE 108 − 102
Apr 2, 2025at CLECLE 124 − 105
Feb 21, 2025at CLECLE 142 − 105
Oct 28, 2024at NYCLE 110 − 104
Mar 3, 2024at CLENY 107 − 98

NY · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
May 21vs CLE109 − 93W
May 19vs CLE115 − 104W
May 10at PHI144 − 114W
May 8at PHI108 − 94W
May 6vs PHI108 − 102W
May 4vs PHI137 − 98W
Apr 30at ATL140 − 89W
Apr 28vs ATL126 − 97W
Apr 25at ATL114 − 98W
Apr 23at ATL108 − 109L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 21at NY93 − 109L
May 19at NY104 − 115L
May 17at DET125 − 94W
May 15vs DET94 − 115L
May 13at DET117 − 113W
May 11vs DET112 − 103W
May 9vs DET116 − 109W
May 7at DET97 − 107L
May 5at DET101 − 111L
May 3vs TOR114 − 102W