bayesRatings

76ers at Knicks

NBA · Monday, May 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final PHI 98 – NY 137
← NBA / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI2526272098
NY33413528137
Team box
PHI·NY
30-73
field goals
53-84
11-30
3-pointers
19-37
27-34
free throws
12-17
28
rebounds
39
15
assists
34
19
turnovers
15
32
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY313513
OG AnunobyNY301831
Karl-Anthony TownsNY201766
Mikal BridgesNY271725
Paul GeorgePHI261733
Joel EmbiidPHI251441

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +40
PHI +40
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 40 · PHI 3lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 27%, NY 73% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
NY by 9.1
Expected score
NY 116.8 – 107.8 PHI
Expected total
224.6
76ersThe matchupKnicks
+272Our fair odds−272
107.8Expected points116.8
−0.13Power rating+0.64
115.9Points / game116.5
116.1Allowed / game110.2
46.3FG%47.7
34.43P%37.2
43.6Rebounds / game45.8
45−37 · 4−3 postSeason record54−29 · 4−2 post
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NY chance
Our model fair26.9%73.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+27227%————
NYNew York Knicks−27273%————
SpreadNY by 9.1
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+9.1our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.6
Over224.6our total————
Under224.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 9.1 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 2%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 2%New York Knicks by 22 points: 2%New York Knicks by 23 points: 2%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 35 points: 1%New York Knicks by 36 points: 1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 49 points: <1%New York Knicks by 50 points: <1%New York Knicks by 51 points: <1%
← PHI wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more64%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more49%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.6 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NY
May 2 at BOS
last game
Apr 30 at ATL
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 4, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · right hip; contusionProbable
New York Knicks
NYJeremy Sochan · left hamstring; tightnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
PHI·NY
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.64
115.9
points / game
116.5
116.1
points allowed / game
110.2
45−37 · 4−3 post
season record
54−29 · 4−2 post
23−18
home record
31−10
22−19
away record
23−19
W3
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
46.3
FG%
47.7
34.4
3P%
37.2
43.6
rebounds / game
45.8
24.6
assists / game
27.4
13.6
turnovers / game
13.6
50.1
points in paint / game
47.9

Rating Trend

PHI · NY · 175 days
Philadelphia 76ersNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 7−3
Feb 11at PHINY 138 − 89
Jan 24at PHINY 112 − 109
Jan 3at NYPHI 130 − 119
Dec 19, 2025at NYPHI 116 − 107
Apr 1, 2025at NYNY 105 − 91
Feb 26, 2025at NYNY 110 − 105
Jan 15, 2025at PHINY 125 − 119
Nov 12, 2024at PHINY 111 − 99
May 2, 2024at PHINY 118 − 115post
Apr 30, 2024at NYPHI 112 − 106post

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 2at BOS109 − 100W
Apr 30vs BOS106 − 93W
Apr 28at BOS113 − 97W
Apr 26vs BOS96 − 128L
Apr 24vs BOS100 − 108L
Apr 21at BOS111 − 97W
Apr 19at BOS91 − 123L
Apr 12vs MIL126 − 106W
Apr 10at IND105 − 94W
Apr 9at HOU102 − 113L

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 30at ATL140 − 89W
Apr 28vs ATL126 − 97W
Apr 25at ATL114 − 98W
Apr 23at ATL108 − 109L
Apr 20vs ATL106 − 107L
Apr 18vs ATL113 − 102W
Apr 12vs CHA96 − 110L
Apr 10vs TOR112 − 95W
Apr 9vs BOS112 − 106W
Apr 6at ATL108 − 105W