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Bucks at 76ers

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 5:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final MIL 106 – PHI 126
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL26361628106
PHI29293830126
Team box
MIL·PHI
39-90
field goals
47-91
13-47
3-pointers
16-41
15-22
free throws
16-21
45
rebounds
45
26
assists
28
19
turnovers
14
48
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cormac RyanMIL3822104
Tyrese MaxeyPHI272121
Quentin GrimesPHI282035
AJ GreenMIL361951
Justin EdwardsPHI231712
Jericho SimsMIL311573

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +28
MIL +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 28 · MIL 4lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 38%, PHI 62% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
PHI by 4.7
Expected score
PHI 116.4 – 111.8 MIL
Expected total
228.2
BucksThe matchup76ers
+164Our fair odds−164
111.8Expected points116.4
−0.42Power rating−0.14
110.7Points / game115.8
116.7Allowed / game116.2
47.8FG%46.2
38.93P%34.4
40.7Rebounds / game43.6
32−49Season record44−37
3−7Last 105−5
Bobby Portis · Gary Harris
Gary Trent Jr. · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr.OutJoel Embiid · Johni Broome

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair37.9%62.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+16438%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−16462%————
SpreadPHI by 4.7
MILMilwaukee Bucks+4.7our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 4.7 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more53%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more38%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GCormac Ryanstarted
GAJ Greenstarted
FTaurean Princestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CAdem Bonastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·PHI
Apr 10 vs BKN
last game
Apr 10 at IND
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGary Harris · right groin; tightnessOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · oblique muscle; strain (internal)Out
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; surgeryOut
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles; tendonopathyOut
MILMyles Turner · left ankle; sprainOut
MILPete Nance · right knee; sprainOut
MILRyan Rollins · right thumb; sprainOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · n/a; post appendectomy surgery recoveryOut
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
MIL·PHI
−0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
110.7
points / game
115.8
116.7
points allowed / game
116.2
32−49
season record
44−37
19−22
home record
22−18
13−27
away record
22−19
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
47.8
FG%
46.2
38.9
3P%
34.4
40.7
rebounds / game
43.6
25.8
assists / game
24.6
15.2
turnovers / game
13.6
41.8
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

MIL · PHI · 158 days
Milwaukee BucksPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 3−7
Jan 27at PHIPHI 139 − 122
Dec 5, 2025at MILPHI 116 − 101
Nov 20, 2025at MILPHI 123 − 114
Apr 3, 2025at PHIMIL 126 − 113
Feb 9, 2025at MILMIL 135 − 127
Jan 19, 2025at MILMIL 123 − 109
Oct 23, 2024at PHIMIL 124 − 109
Mar 14, 2024at MILMIL 114 − 105
Feb 25, 2024at PHIMIL 119 − 98
Oct 26, 2023at MILMIL 118 − 117

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Apr 10vs BKN125 − 108W
Apr 8at DET111 − 137L
Apr 7at BKN90 − 96L
Apr 5vs MEM131 − 115W
Apr 3vs BOS101 − 133L
Apr 1at HOU113 − 119L
Mar 31vs DAL123 − 99W
Mar 29vs LAC113 − 127L
Mar 28vs SA95 − 127L
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Apr 10at IND105 − 94W
Apr 9at HOU102 − 113L
Apr 6at SA102 − 115L
Apr 4vs DET93 − 116L
Apr 3vs MIN115 − 103W
Apr 1at WSH153 − 131W
Mar 30at MIA109 − 119L
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L