bayesRatings

Hawks at Knicks

NBA · Saturday, Apr 18 · 5:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final ATL 102 – NY 113

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL24311928102
NY30272630113
Team box
ATL·NY
38-87
field goals
38-80
14-37
3-pointers
12-25
12-19
free throws
25-30
40
rebounds
45
25
assists
22
12
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY362857
CJ McCollumATL342631
Karl-Anthony TownsNY332584
Jalen JohnsonATL392373
Onyeka OkongwuATL371982
OG AnunobyNY381880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +19
ATL +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 19 · ATL 4lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 35%, NY 65% · Updated Apr 18

Expected margin
NY by 4.5
Expected score
NY 117.2 – 112.8 ATL
Expected total
230.0
HawksThe matchupKnicks
+187Our fair odds−187
112.8Expected points117.2
+0.24Power rating+0.63
118.5Points / game116.5
116.0Allowed / game110.2
47.4FG%47.7
36.93P%37.2
43.5Rebounds / game45.8
46−36Season record54−29
6−4Last 106−4
Jock LandaleOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NY chance
Our model fair34.9%65.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+18735%————
NYNew York Knicks−18765%————
SpreadNY by 4.5
ATLAtlanta Hawks+4.5our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.0
Over230.0our total————
Under230.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 4.5 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more52%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more37%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.0 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.548%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
FOG Anunobystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NY
Apr 12 at MIA
last game
Apr 12 vs CHA
5 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 18, 5:00 PM ET
ATLJock Landale · right high ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
ATL·NY
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.63
118.5
points / game
116.5
116.0
points allowed / game
110.2
46−36
season record
54−29
24−17
home record
31−10
22−19
away record
23−19
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.4
FG%
47.7
36.9
3P%
37.2
43.5
rebounds / game
45.8
30.1
assists / game
27.4
14.2
turnovers / game
13.6
51.6
points in paint / game
47.9

Rating Trend

ATL · NY · 159 days
Atlanta HawksNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 6−4
Apr 6at ATLNY 108 − 105
Jan 2at NYATL 111 − 99
Dec 27, 2025at ATLNY 128 − 125
Apr 5, 2025at ATLNY 121 − 105
Feb 12, 2025at NYNY 149 − 148
Jan 20, 2025at NYNY 119 − 110
Dec 11, 2024at NYATL 108 − 100
Nov 6, 2024at ATLATL 121 − 116
Mar 5, 2024at NYATL 116 − 100
Nov 15, 2023at ATLNY 116 − 114

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 12at MIA117 − 143L
Apr 10vs CLE124 − 102W
Apr 8at CLE116 − 122L
Apr 6vs NY105 − 108L
Apr 3at BKN141 − 107W
Apr 1at ORL130 − 101W
Mar 30vs BOS112 − 102W
Mar 28vs SAC123 − 113W
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W

NY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 12vs CHA96 − 110L
Apr 10vs TOR112 − 95W
Apr 9vs BOS112 − 106W
Apr 6at ATL108 − 105W
Apr 3vs CHI136 − 96W
Apr 1at MEM130 − 119W
Mar 31at HOU94 − 111L
Mar 29at OKC100 − 111L
Mar 26at CHA103 − 114L
Mar 24vs NO121 − 116W