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Hawks at Heat

NBA · Sunday, Apr 12 · 5:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final ATL 117 – MIA 143
← NBA / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL24372333117
MIA33372944143
Team box
ATL·MIA
44-93
field goals
58-103
17-44
3-pointers
15-37
12-18
free throws
12-17
46
rebounds
45
31
assists
34
17
turnovers
7
48
points in paint
80
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Buddy HieldATL213133
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA262615
Bam AdebayoMIA2925103
Norman PowellMIA232522
Corey KispertATL292132
Asa NewellATL3917112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +26
ATL +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 26 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 48%, MIA 52% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
MIA by 0.0
Expected score
MIA 120.0 – 120.0 ATL
Expected total
239.9
HawksThe matchupHeat
+107Our fair odds−107
120.0Expected points120.0
+0.24Power rating+0.09
118.5Points / game120.6
115.7Allowed / game118.6
47.4FG%46.8
36.93P%35.9
43.5Rebounds / game46.3
46−35Season record42−39
7−3Last 104−6
CJ McCollum · Dyson Daniels
Gabe Vincent · Jalen Johnson
Jock LandaleOutDru Smith · Nikola Jovic
Pelle Larsson · Simone Fontecchio

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+10748%————
MIAMiami Heat−10752%————
SpreadMIA by 0.0
ATLAtlanta HawksPKour margin————
MIAMiami HeatPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 239.9
Over239.9our total————
Under239.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more40%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more27%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.9 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GKeaton Wallacestarted
FCorey Kispertstarted
FAsa Newellstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CTony Bradleystarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·MIA
Apr 10 vs CLE
last game
Apr 10 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 12, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCJ McCollum · restOut
ATLDyson Daniels · left great toe; sprainOut
ATLGabe Vincent · left knee; inflammationOut
ATLJalen Johnson · restOut
ATLJock Landale · right high ankle; sprainOut
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; injury managementOut
ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker · right great toe; sprainOut
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · left index finger; sprainOut
ATLMouhamed Gueye · right shoulder; inflammationQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIADru Smith · right big toe; sprainOut
MIANikola Jovic · left ankle; sprainOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right lower leg; contusionOut
MIASimone Fontecchio · left ankle; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
ATL·MIA
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
118.5
points / game
120.6
115.7
points allowed / game
118.6
46−35
season record
42−39
24−17
home record
25−15
22−18
away record
17−24
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
47.4
FG%
46.8
36.9
3P%
35.9
43.5
rebounds / game
46.3
30.1
assists / game
28.9
14.1
turnovers / game
13.7
51.7
points in paint / game
54.3

Rating Trend

ATL · MIA · 158 days
Atlanta HawksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 6−4
Feb 20at ATLMIA 128 − 97
Feb 3at MIAATL 127 − 115
Dec 26, 2025at ATLMIA 126 − 111
Mar 27, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 112
Feb 26, 2025at MIAMIA 131 − 109
Feb 24, 2025at ATLATL 98 − 86
Dec 28, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 110
Apr 9, 2024at ATLMIA 117 − 111
Jan 19, 2024at MIAATL 109 − 108
Dec 22, 2023at MIAMIA 122 − 113

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 10vs CLE124 − 102W
Apr 8at CLE116 − 122L
Apr 6vs NY105 − 108L
Apr 3at BKN141 − 107W
Apr 1at ORL130 − 101W
Mar 30vs BOS112 − 102W
Mar 28vs SAC123 − 113W
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 10at WSH140 − 117W
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L