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Heat at Wizards

NBA · Friday, Apr 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final MIA 140 – WSH 117
← NBA / Apr 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA34383335140
WSH23293332117
Team box
MIA·WSH
49-82
field goals
46-92
20-37
3-pointers
14-31
22-26
free throws
11-14
40
rebounds
27
37
assists
26
19
turnovers
14
58
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bub CarringtonWSH343024
Bilal CoulibalyWSH222555
Simone FontecchioMIA272442
Pelle LarssonMIA272406
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA362348
Bam AdebayoMIA3820118

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +25
MIA +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 2 · MIA 25lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 77%, WSH 23% · Updated Apr 10

Expected margin
MIA by 10.8
Expected score
MIA 126.6 – 115.8 WSH
Expected total
242.3
HeatThe matchupWizards
−332Our fair odds+332
126.6Expected points115.8
+0.09Power rating−1.34
120.3Points / game112.8
118.6Allowed / game124.6
46.6FG%46.3
35.63P%35.4
46.4Rebounds / game42.2
41−39Season record17−63
3−7Last 101−9
Dru Smith · Nikola Jovic
Terry Rozier · Tyler HerroOutAlex Sarr · Anthony Davis
Cam Whitmore · D'Angelo Russell
Justin Champagnie

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair76.9%23.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−33277%————
WSHWashington Wizards+33223%————
SpreadMIA by 10.8
MIAMiami Heat−10.8our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+10.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.3
Over242.3our total————
Under242.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 10.8 expected
Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 4%Miami Heat by 9 points: 4%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%
← MIA wins byWSH wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more70%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more54%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.3 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.567%
Total over 242.548%
Total over 252.530%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GKasparas Jakucionisstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
FSimone Fontecchiostarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Washington Wizards
GBub Carringtonstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
FAnthony Gillstarted
FLeaky Blackstarted
FJulian Reesestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·WSH
Apr 9 at TOR
last game
Apr 9 vs CHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 10, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIADru Smith · right foot; sorenessOut
MIANikola Jovic · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right foot; sorenessOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; sorenessDoubtful
MIADavion Mitchell · right shoulder; contusionQuestionable
Washington Wizards
WSHAlex Sarr · left big toe; capsulitisOut
WSHAnthony Davis · left finger; sprainOut
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHD'Angelo Russell · low back strain not with teamOut
WSHJustin Champagnie · right knee; contusionOut
WSHKyshawn George · left elbow; sprainOut
WSHTrae Young · low back; pain; right quad contusionOut
WSHTre Johnson · right foot; sprain;Out
WSHTristan Vukcevic · right knee; contusionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
MIA·WSH
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−1.34
120.3
points / game
112.8
118.6
points allowed / game
124.6
41−39
season record
17−63
25−15
home record
11−29
16−24
away record
6−34
L2
streak
L8
3−7
last 10
1−9
46.6
FG%
46.3
35.6
3P%
35.4
46.4
rebounds / game
42.2
28.8
assists / game
25.0
13.7
turnovers / game
15.7
54.3
points in paint / game
47.7

Rating Trend

MIA · WSH · 157 days
Miami HeatWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 2−8
Apr 4at MIAMIA 152 − 136
Mar 10at MIAMIA 150 − 129
Feb 8at WSHMIA 132 − 101
Apr 13, 2025at MIAWSH 119 − 118
Mar 31, 2025at WSHMIA 120 − 94
Mar 3, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 90
Nov 2, 2024at WSHMIA 118 − 98
Mar 31, 2024at WSHMIA 119 − 107
Mar 10, 2024at MIAWSH 110 − 108
Feb 2, 2024at WSHMIA 110 − 102

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Apr 9at TOR114 − 128L
Apr 7at TOR95 − 121L
Apr 4vs WSH152 − 136W
Apr 1vs BOS129 − 147L
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L

WSH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Apr 9vs CHI108 − 119L
Apr 7vs CHI98 − 129L
Apr 5at BKN115 − 121L
Apr 4at MIA136 − 152L
Apr 1vs PHI131 − 153L
Mar 30at LAL101 − 120L
Mar 29at POR88 − 123L
Mar 27at GS126 − 131L
Mar 25at UTAH133 − 110W
Mar 22at NY113 − 145L