bayesRatings

76ers at Celtics

NBA · Saturday, May 2 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final PHI 109 – BOS 100
← NBA / May 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI32233321109
BOS19312525100
Team box
PHI·BOS
39-82
field goals
37-93
11-28
3-pointers
13-49
20-23
free throws
13-16
44
rebounds
44
25
assists
19
9
turnovers
5
42
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Joel EmbiidPHI3934126
Jaylen BrownBOS403394
Tyrese MaxeyPHI4530117
Derrick WhiteBOS452664
VJ EdgecombePHI442364
Neemias QuetaBOS3317121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +18
PHI +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 1 · PHI 18lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 21%, BOS 79% · Updated May 2

Expected margin
BOS by 11.7
Expected score
BOS 116.0 – 104.3 PHI
Expected total
220.3
76ersThe matchupCeltics
+371Our fair odds−371
104.3Expected points116.0
−0.13Power rating+0.95
115.9Points / game114.9
116.1Allowed / game107.2
46.3FG%46.8
34.43P%36.7
43.6Rebounds / game46.4
45−37 · 3−3 postSeason record56−26 · 3−3 post
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BOS chance
Our model fair21.3%78.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+37121%————
BOSBoston Celtics−37179%————
SpreadBOS by 11.7
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+11.7our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−11.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.3
Over220.3our total————
Under220.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 11.7 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 53 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 52 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 51 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 50 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 49 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 52 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 53 points: <1%
← PHI wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more70%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more56%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.3 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.549%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GRon Harper Jr.started
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
CLuka Garzastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BOS
Apr 30 vs BOS
last game
Apr 30 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 2, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJoel Embiid · n/a; post appendectomy surgery recoveryProbable
PHIPaul George · n/a; illnessProbable
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · left knee; stiffnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
PHI·BOS
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.95
115.9
points / game
114.9
116.1
points allowed / game
107.2
45−37 · 3−3 post
season record
56−26 · 3−3 post
23−18
home record
30−11
22−19
away record
26−15
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
46.3
FG%
46.8
34.4
3P%
36.7
43.6
rebounds / game
46.4
24.6
assists / game
24.6
13.6
turnovers / game
12.3
50.1
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

PHI · BOS · 173 days
Philadelphia 76ersBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Apr 30at PHIPHI 106 − 93post
Apr 28at BOSPHI 113 − 97post
Apr 26at PHIBOS 128 − 96post
Apr 24at PHIBOS 108 − 100post
Apr 21at BOSPHI 111 − 97post
Apr 19at BOSBOS 123 − 91post
Mar 1at BOSBOS 114 − 98
Nov 11, 2025at PHIPHI 102 − 100
Oct 31, 2025at PHIBOS 109 − 108
Oct 22, 2025at BOSPHI 117 − 116

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Apr 30vs BOS106 − 93W
Apr 28at BOS113 − 97W
Apr 26vs BOS96 − 128L
Apr 24vs BOS100 − 108L
Apr 21at BOS111 − 97W
Apr 19at BOS91 − 123L
Apr 12vs MIL126 − 106W
Apr 10at IND105 − 94W
Apr 9at HOU102 − 113L
Apr 6at SA102 − 115L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 30at PHI93 − 106L
Apr 28vs PHI97 − 113L
Apr 26at PHI128 − 96W
Apr 24at PHI108 − 100W
Apr 21vs PHI97 − 111L
Apr 19vs PHI123 − 91W
Apr 12vs ORL113 − 108W
Apr 10vs NO144 − 118W
Apr 9at NY106 − 112L
Apr 7vs CHA113 − 102W