Final · our forecast was BOS 70%, PHI 30% · Updated Apr 24
Expected margin
BOS by 8.2
Expected score
BOS 114.7 – 106.5 PHI
Expected total
221.2
CelticsThe matchup76ers
−230Our fair odds+230
114.7Expected points106.5
+0.96Power rating−0.13
114.9Points / game115.9
107.2Allowed / game116.1
46.8FG%46.3
36.73P%34.4
46.4Rebounds / game43.6
56−26 · 1−1 postSeason record45−37 · 1−1 post
7−3Last 105−5
Prediction markets
Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · PHI chance
Our model fair69.7%30.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
Team
Our modelfair
Kalshi
Polymarket US
ProphetX
Novig
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics
−23070%
—
—
—
—
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
+23030%
—
—
—
—
SpreadBOS by 8.2
BOSBoston Celtics
−8.2our margin
—
—
—
—
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
+8.2our margin
—
—
—
—
Totalwe expect 221.2
Over
221.2our total
—
—
—
—
Under
221.2our total
—
—
—
—
These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.
Margin range
Boston Celtics by 8.2 expected
40302010010203040
← BOS wins byPHI wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more63%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more47%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%
Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.
Total range
221.2 expected
180200220240260
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%
Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.