bayesRatings

Hawks at Knicks

NBA · Tuesday, Apr 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final ATL 97 – NY 126
← NBA / Apr 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL2226242597
NY35292636126
Team box
ATL·NY
37-83
field goals
45-79
13-42
3-pointers
11-26
10-17
free throws
25-34
27
rebounds
48
25
assists
26
10
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY353938
Jalen JohnsonATL3518106
OG AnunobyNY3517101
Dyson DanielsATL251725
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3416146
Onyeka OkongwuATL341654

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NY +32
ATL +32
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NY 32 · ATL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 34%, NY 66% · Updated Apr 28

Expected margin
NY by 5.1
Expected score
NY 117.0 – 112.0 ATL
Expected total
229.0
HawksThe matchupKnicks
+190Our fair odds−190
112.0Expected points117.0
+0.24Power rating+0.64
118.5Points / game116.5
116.0Allowed / game110.2
47.4FG%47.7
36.93P%37.2
43.5Rebounds / game45.8
46−36 · 2−2 postSeason record54−29 · 2−2 post
5−5Last 107−3
Jock LandaleOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NY chance
Our model fair34.5%65.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+19034%————
NYNew York Knicks−19066%————
SpreadNY by 5.1
ATLAtlanta Hawks+5.1our margin————
NYNew York Knicks−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.0
Over229.0our total————
Under229.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 5.1 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNY wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more54%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more39%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.0 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.548%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NY
Apr 25 vs NY
last game
Apr 25 at ATL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 27, 5:00 PM ET
ATLJock Landale · right high ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
ATL·NY
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.64
118.5
points / game
116.5
116.0
points allowed / game
110.2
46−36 · 2−2 post
season record
54−29 · 2−2 post
24−17
home record
31−10
22−19
away record
23−19
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
47.7
36.9
3P%
37.2
43.5
rebounds / game
45.8
30.1
assists / game
27.4
14.2
turnovers / game
13.6
51.6
points in paint / game
47.9

Rating Trend

ATL · NY · 169 days
Atlanta HawksNew York Knicks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NY 7−3
Apr 25at ATLNY 114 − 98post
Apr 23at ATLATL 109 − 108post
Apr 20at NYATL 107 − 106post
Apr 18at NYNY 113 − 102post
Apr 6at ATLNY 108 − 105
Jan 2at NYATL 111 − 99
Dec 27, 2025at ATLNY 128 − 125
Apr 5, 2025at ATLNY 121 − 105
Feb 12, 2025at NYNY 149 − 148
Jan 20, 2025at NYNY 119 − 110

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Apr 25vs NY98 − 114L
Apr 23vs NY109 − 108W
Apr 20at NY107 − 106W
Apr 18at NY102 − 113L
Apr 12at MIA117 − 143L
Apr 10vs CLE124 − 102W
Apr 8at CLE116 − 122L
Apr 6vs NY105 − 108L
Apr 3at BKN141 − 107W
Apr 1at ORL130 − 101W

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 25at ATL114 − 98W
Apr 23at ATL108 − 109L
Apr 20vs ATL106 − 107L
Apr 18vs ATL113 − 102W
Apr 12vs CHA96 − 110L
Apr 10vs TOR112 − 95W
Apr 9vs BOS112 − 106W
Apr 6at ATL108 − 105W
Apr 3vs CHI136 − 96W
Apr 1at MEM130 − 119W