bayesRatings

49ers at Rams

NFL · Thursday, Oct 2 · 7:15 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final SF 26 – LAR 23
← NFL / Oct 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
SF71033326
LAR0779023
Team box
SF·LAR
407
total yards
456
333
passing yards
378
74
rushing yards
78
27
first downs
27
7-18
third downs
4-10
0
turnovers
2
40:04
time of possession
26:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Mac JonesSF33/4934220
Matthew StaffordLAR30/4738930
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF22570
Kyren WilliamsLAR14650
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kendrick BourneSF101420
Davante AdamsLAR5880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +14
SF +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: LAR 0 · SF 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 35%, LAR 65% · Updated Oct 2, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 4.9
Expected score
LAR 24.2 – 19.4 SF
Expected total
43.6
49ersThe matchupRams
+189Our fair odds−189
19.4Expected points24.2
+0.10Power rating+0.39
20.0Points / game25.0
18.8Allowed / game20.2
368Total yards / game388
5.6Yards / play6.2
280Passing yards / game268
3−1Season record3−1
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAR chance
Our model fair34.6%65.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+18935%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−18965%————
SpreadLAR by 4.9
SFSan Francisco 49ers+4.9our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.6
Over43.6our total————
Under43.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 4.9 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%
← SF wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more57%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more41%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.6 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 65% completions, 263 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 66% completions, 290 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAR
Sep 28, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Sep 28, 2025 vs IND
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
SF·LAR
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
20.0
points / game
25.0
18.8
points allowed / game
20.2
3−1
season record
3−1
1−1
home record
2−0
2−0
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
368
total yards / game
388
5.6
yards / play
6.2
280
passing yards / game
268
88
rushing yards / game
121
22.0
first downs / game
21.5
2.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

SF · LAR · 10 days
San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAR 4−5
Dec 12, 2024at SFLAR 12 − 6
Sep 22, 2024at LARLAR 27 − 24
Jan 7, 2024at SFLAR 21 − 20
Sep 17, 2023at LARSF 30 − 23
Oct 30, 2022at LARSF 31 − 14
Oct 3, 2022at SFSF 24 − 9
Jan 30, 2022at LARLAR 20 − 17post
Jan 9, 2022at LARSF 27 − 24
Nov 15, 2021at SFSF 31 − 10

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L
Dec 8, 2024vs CHI38 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at BUF10 − 35L

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W
Dec 22, 2024at NYJ19 − 9W
Dec 12, 2024at SF12 − 6W