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Cowboys at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Oct 5 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final DAL 37 – NYJ 22
← NFL / Oct 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL3207737
NYJ3031622
Team box
DAL·NYJ
416
total yards
378
236
passing yards
234
180
rushing yards
144
22
first downs
25
6-13
third downs
7-16
0
turnovers
1
25:24
time of possession
34:36
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL18/2923740
Justin FieldsNYJ32/4628320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL161351
Breece HallNYJ141130
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ryan FlournoyDAL61140
Garrett WilsonNYJ6711

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +27
DAL +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 3 · DAL 27lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 49%, NYJ 51% · Updated Oct 5, 2025

Expected margin
NYJ by 2.0
Expected score
NYJ 27.4 – 25.4 DAL
Expected total
52.9
CowboysThe matchupJets
+104Our fair odds−104
25.4Expected points27.4
−0.31Power rating−0.66
28.5Points / game22.5
33.0Allowed / game30.0
404Total yards / game305
5.9Yards / play5.2
281Passing yards / game160
1−2−1Season record0−4
4−5−1Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys+10449%————
NYJNew York Jets−10451%————
SpreadNYJ by 2.0
DALDallas Cowboys+2our margin————
NYJNew York Jets−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.9
Over52.9our total————
Under52.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Jets by 2.0 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 41 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 40 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 39 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 8%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: 2%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 2%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: 1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: 1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%
← DAL wins byNYJ wins by →
New York Jets wins by 3 or more49%
New York Jets wins by 7 or more33%
New York Jets wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.9 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.567%
Total over 52.548%
Total over 59.533%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 76% completions, 310 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYJJustin Fields · last 3 games: 65% completions, 157 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·NYJ
Sep 28, 2025 vs GB
last game
Sep 29, 2025 at MIA
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
DAL·NYJ
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.66
28.5
points / game
22.5
33.0
points allowed / game
30.0
1−2−1
season record
0−4
1−0−1
home record
0−2
0−2
away record
0−2
T1
streak
L4
4−5−1
last 10
2−8
404
total yards / game
305
5.9
yards / play
5.2
281
passing yards / game
160
123
rushing yards / game
144
25.8
first downs / game
19.5
1.5
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

DAL · NYJ · 11 days
Dallas CowboysNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYJ 0−1
Sep 17, 2023at DALDAL 30 − 10

DAL · Last 10

4−5−1 · streak T1
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W
Dec 9, 2024vs CIN20 − 27L
Nov 28, 2024vs NYG27 − 20W

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W
Dec 8, 2024at MIA26 − 32L
Dec 1, 2024vs SEA21 − 26L